Escalating military actions in the Middle East are creating immediate logistical and supply risks for Brazil’s farm sector, trade and shipping sources say. U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, and Iran’s subsequent attacks on other regional targets, have disrupted transit through the Strait of Hormuz. That disruption is already forcing shippers and traders to reassess routes and delivery plans for Brazilian agricultural exports and fertilizer imports.
Consultancy Argus has reported that some shippers are evaluating the option of unloading Brazilian grain cargoes in Oman to avoid danger in the Persian Gulf. "The alternative would be to cancel [grain] shipments," Argus said. "It is also still uncertain whether cargoes could be delivered in Oman and from there be sent to their final destinations by truck or rail."
Those uncertainties are significant because the Middle East is an important market for Brazilian crops and a key conduit for fertilizer moving to Brazil. Arthur da Anunciacao Neto, owner of shipping agency Alphamar Agencia Maritima, noted that bulk cargoes such as corn typically enter the Middle East through the Strait of Hormuz. He also highlighted that rising shipping risk is increasing maritime insurance costs.
Alphamar’s data show ten vessels are scheduled to depart for Iran in the coming days loaded with more than 600,000 tons of Brazilian soybeans and soymeal. Depending on how conditions evolve, those cargoes could be diverted to other ports or destinations, Neto said.
Last year Iran was the largest buyer of Brazilian corn, taking roughly 9 million tons, about 20% of Brazil’s corn exports. Much of Brazil’s corn exports are concentrated in the second half of the year, a factor that affects shipment timing and potential exposure to ongoing disruptions.
Fertilizer flows at risk
The conflict is also putting pressure on fertilizer supplies. Data from consultancy Agrinvest indicate Brazil met 100% of its urea demand through imports in 2025. An estimated 41% of those imports - nearly 3 million metric tons - passed through the Strait of Hormuz en route to Brazil.
Francisco Vieira, director at consultancy Agroconsult, warned that the war will likely curb urea flows and push prices higher in the short term. "Nothing is expected to come from Iran," Vieira said. "We do not even know if their factories are being bombarded."
Official government figures show Brazil imported 7.7 million tons of urea last year, and shipments recorded as coming directly from Iran accounted for less than 2.5% of that total. However, because some Iranian exports are routed via Oman to circumvent sanctions-related settlement challenges, private estimates put Iran as the origin for around 1.3 million to 1.4 million tons of Brazil’s annual urea imports.
Renato Françoso of StoneX characterized the potential absence of Middle East suppliers as a source of supply imbalance. He noted the Middle East exports an estimated 22 million tons of urea, representing about 40% of global trade in the fertilizer.
Timing concerns for planting cycle
Analysts say a prolonged conflict could affect fertilizer deliveries ahead of Brazil’s 2026/2027 crop cycle, which begins planting in September. Delays or shortages of urea could have downstream effects on application timing and input costs for farmers preparing for that season.
Thamires Cateli, founder of consultancy and brokerage firm Hudie Consulting, said the war in Iran prompted sellers to withdraw urea price lists this week, adding another layer of disruption to global trade in fertilizers.
Some supply can be sourced from other countries. But second-order vulnerabilities remain unclear. For example, Egyptian production, which makes up about 8% of global urea supplies, depends on natural gas flows from Israel - a supply line that may also be at risk amid regional hostilities, Françoso said. China has reduced fertilizer exports in recent years to prioritise domestic needs, and Russia, which accounted for an estimated 16% of urea supplies in 2024, could replace part of lost shipments. However, recent drone attacks such as one on a fertilizer plant in Smolensk last month underscore that alternative supply corridors are not immune to disruption.
Sectoral implications
- Agricultural exports - Elevated risk of contract cancellations or diversions for soybeans, soymeal and corn bound for the Middle East.
- Fertilizer supply chain - Potential shortfalls and price volatility for urea imports that rely on Middle Eastern transit.
- Shipping and insurance - Higher insurance premia and rerouting costs as vessels avoid high-risk waters near the Strait of Hormuz.
Given the concentration of trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the share of Brazilian agricultural inputs and outputs tied to that corridor, exporters, importers and logistics providers face near-term operational decisions whose outcomes remain uncertain as the conflict unfolds.