Stock Markets February 12, 2026

Markets Brace for U.S. CPI Release That Could Shape Fed Expectations

Headline and core inflation readings for January are due Friday and will be closely monitored by investors for clues about monetary policy

By Leila Farooq
Markets Brace for U.S. CPI Release That Could Shape Fed Expectations

Traders are preparing for a busy Friday, February 13, 2026, when a string of economic releases culminates with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings for January. Headline and core monthly and yearly CPI figures will be published at 8:30 AM ET and are expected to provide fresh signals about inflation momentum and potential implications for Federal Reserve policy. A slate of other data and CFTC positioning reports throughout the day will add color to market positioning across commodities and equity futures.

Key Points

  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI) monthly and annual readings for January are the primary data releases on Friday, Feb. 13, 2026, with headline and core figures scheduled for 8:30 AM ET.
  • A range of market-specific releases - including Baker Hughes rig counts at 1:00 PM ET and multiple CFTC speculative position reports at 3:30 PM ET - will provide insight into energy, agricultural, metals and equity-futures positioning.
  • Regional and ancillary CPI measures, including the Cleveland CPI and index-level CPI readings, will offer additional detail on inflation dynamics and real earnings data.

Financial markets head into Friday, February 13, 2026 with a heightened focus on inflation data that could influence investor expectations about the Federal Reserve's policy path. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) - both headline and core measures - will be the central release, with monthly and annual readings scheduled for 8:30 AM ET. These figures are widely regarded by market participants as among the most important indicators for gauging price pressures across the economy.

Friday's CPI docket includes multiple readings that investors will parse for nuances in price trends:

  • 8:30 AM ET - CPI (MoM) (Jan): Expected at 0.3%, with the previous reading at 0.3%. This monthly measure reflects the change in consumer prices across the economy.
  • 8:30 AM ET - CPI (YoY) (Jan): Expected at 2.5%, down from the prior 2.7%. The year-over-year rate gives context on longer-term inflation trends.
  • 8:30 AM ET - Core CPI (MoM) (Jan): Expected at 0.3%, compared with the previous 0.2%. Core CPI excludes food and energy and is used to assess underlying price momentum.

Additional CPI-related items slated at 8:30 AM ET will provide more granular readings for markets to digest. These include the annual core CPI (expected at 2.5%, previous 2.6%), the seasonally adjusted CPI index (previous 326.03), and non-seasonally adjusted CPI changes (previous -0.02%). The non-seasonally adjusted CPI index is expected at 325.41, up from the prior 324.05. A core CPI index level is also listed with a previous value of 331.86. Real earnings - a measure of wage changes adjusted for inflation - are shown with a previous reading of -0.3%.

Regional data will also be available during the morning, including the Cleveland CPI at 11:00 AM ET, which had a prior reading of 0.3% and offers a regional snapshot of price movements.


Beyond inflation, a number of scheduled releases and position reports are expected to influence specific market segments later in the day:

  • 1:00 PM ET - Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count: Previous 412. This tally is watched as a forward-looking indicator of drilling activity in the oil industry.
  • 1:00 PM ET - U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count: Previous 551. This figure provides a broader measure of total drilling operations.
  • 3:30 PM ET - CFTC speculative positions: A series of Commodity Futures Trading Commission position tallies will be published, showing recent speculative positioning across multiple markets. Previous readings include Crude Oil at 124.6K, S&P 500 at -132.9K, Nasdaq 100 at 14.2K, Gold at 165.6K, Soybeans at 64.2K, Corn at -34.7K, Wheat at -65.5K, Natural Gas at -172.3K, Silver at 25.9K, Copper at 47.8K, and Aluminium net positions at -2.9K.

These CFTC reports typically inform market participants about the balance of speculative exposure in futures markets for commodities and major equity indices, which can in turn affect short-term price dynamics in those markets.


Also on the calendar, the Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie K. Logan is scheduled to speak at a time to be announced. Market participants often watch public remarks by Fed officials for any signals about monetary policy thinking, though the content and timing of remarks can vary.

Given the concentration of important releases, market participants will be parsing the CPI numbers alongside the broader slate of data. The monthly CPI readings, both headline and core, are expected to yield the most immediate market reaction as investors interpret them for implications on interest rate expectations.

For readers tracking these items in real time, an economic calendar is available for the latest updates and any adjustments to scheduled times. The calendar compiles the releases and prior readings to help investors follow developments as they unfold throughout the day.

Friday's schedule presents a compact but consequential set of data points. The CPI readings at 8:30 AM ET are likely to draw the greatest attention, while subsequent rig counts, regional measures and CFTC position reports will provide additional texture to market positioning across energy, agricultural and metals markets, as well as equity futures.

Risks

  • CPI outcomes that differ from expectations could quickly shift investor expectations about the Federal Reserve's policy path, impacting interest-rate-sensitive sectors such as financials and real estate.
  • Volatility in commodity and futures markets may increase when CFTC speculative position reports are released, influencing energy and agricultural market participants.
  • Remarks from a Federal Reserve official (Dallas Fed President Lorie K. Logan) - timing to be announced - could add to intraday market uncertainty if comments are interpreted as signaling a change in policy stance.

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