The military confrontation centred on Iran is intensifying at a pace and scale that surprises markets, according to UBS analyst Bhanu Baweja, who says the immediate focus must be on how long the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.
In a global strategy note, Baweja warned that "the most important question presently" is the duration of any shipping disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. He emphasised that "even partially impaired flow for several weeks risks strongly upsetting oil and global markets."
UBS points out that many market participants expect the oil market to remain in surplus through 2027, but Baweja noted this surplus "isn't of much use if oil can't flow to the end market." The firm added that the present conflict "carries a much higher risk, both on oil infrastructure regionally and in the Strait of Hormuz than Israel- Iran military confrontations of the last two years," and that tanker traffic has already fallen sharply.
Reflecting on past episodes, UBS observed that previous geopolitical oil shocks tended to normalise within four to five months. However, the bank warned that today's higher equity valuations make markets more susceptible to stress. The S&P 500, UBS noted, trades at 22.2 times forward earnings, compared with a 14.3x median during prior shocks, and that "Low index volatility betrays complacency."
UBS highlighted a series of widely held equity rotations that are now at elevated risk of reversing. The bank expects a "high risk of reversal" in trades rotating from large-cap to small-cap, from growth to value, and from high-quality to low-quality names - assessments that applied even before the recent escalation.
Fixed income is not immune: UBS cautioned that the market's consensus view for a steepener is likely to fail in the near term. In currencies, the bank said higher oil prices undermine the prevailing view of dollar weakness, noting this dynamic is particularly relevant versus emerging-market currencies. Across its analysis, UBS reiterated that the key variable remains the duration of shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, calling it "the most important thing to watch."
With elevated valuations and compressed volatility in equity markets, combined with strained shipping and oil logistics, UBS's view underscores the potential for rapid shifts across asset classes if the conflict continues to curtail flows through the Strait of Hormuz.