Stock Markets February 5, 2026

Markets Await Trump Speech as Key Economic Data and CFTC Positions Hit the Calendar

Investors prepare for a packed Friday of consumer surveys, drilling counts, credit data and speculative futures positions that could influence asset flows

By Ajmal Hussain GOLD
Markets Await Trump Speech as Key Economic Data and CFTC Positions Hit the Calendar
GOLD

Financial markets are set for a consequential Friday, February 6, 2026, with U.S. President Trump's 7:00 PM ET address the focal point for traders. The day also features final University of Michigan consumer survey components, Baker Hughes rig counts, a sizable consumer credit release, Federal Reserve commentary and a broad slate of CFTC speculative positions across equities and commodity futures. Together, these releases offer multiple potential catalysts for equities, energy, metals and agricultural markets.

Key Points

  • U.S. President Trump's 7:00 PM ET speech is the headline event and will be monitored for policy or economic commentary that could influence markets - impacts broad market sentiment and sectors sensitive to fiscal or regulatory direction.
  • A cluster of University of Michigan survey releases at 10:00 AM ET (final Sentiment, Expectations and Current Conditions, plus 1- and 5-year inflation expectations) provides insight into consumer confidence and inflation outlook - relevant to consumer-facing sectors and monetary policy considerations.
  • Afternoon reports include Baker Hughes rig counts and a Consumer Credit release, alongside a comprehensive set of CFTC speculative position reports at 3:30 PM ET covering equities, energy, metals and agricultural futures - these affect energy, commodity and financial markets.

Traders and market participants face a full schedule of economic and market-moving events on Friday, February 6, 2026, with the day's most closely watched item a 7:00 PM ET speech by U.S. President Trump. Market participants will monitor the President's remarks for any signals or policy comments that could alter market expectations and investor positioning across sectors.

Ahead of that address, a series of scheduled data points and reports across the morning and afternoon provide a range of indicators on consumer sentiment, drilling activity, borrowing and speculative positioning in major futures markets. Below is a timetable of the primary events to watch and their implications for different market segments.


Primary event

  • 7:00 PM ET - U.S. President Trump Speaks: The President's remarks are the headline event of the day and will be parsed for policy announcements or economic commentary that could shift market sentiment. Investors often react to statements that affect fiscal policy, regulatory direction or geopolitical outlooks, making high-profile speeches potential catalysts for short-term volatility.

Scheduled economic releases and reports

  • 10:00 AM ET - Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final): The final reading is expected at 55.0, down from the prior 56.4. This index gauges consumer confidence in areas including personal finances, business conditions and purchasing power, and is a barometer for household willingness to spend.
  • 10:00 AM ET - Michigan Consumer Expectations (Final): Forecast at 56.7 versus the previous 57.0. This component specifically captures consumers' six-month outlook for the economy and is often observed for early signs of changing sentiment that can ripple into consumption patterns.
  • 10:00 AM ET - Michigan Current Conditions (Final): Expected at 54.9 in contrast to the earlier 55.4 reading. This sub-index reflects consumers' assessment of present economic conditions, including perceptions about employment, income and immediate purchasing conditions.
  • 10:00 AM ET - Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations: The previous reading was 4.0% and will be reported alongside other Michigan survey components. This figure captures consumers' short-term inflation outlook.
  • 10:00 AM ET - Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations: The earlier figure stood at 3.3% and offers insight into longer-term inflation expectations among consumers.
  • 12:00 PM ET - Fed Governor Jefferson Speaks: Comments from a Federal Reserve governor will be watched for any indications of the central bank's current thinking on monetary policy. Markets often listen for tone and nuance that could influence rate expectations.
  • 1:00 PM ET - Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count: The previous reading was 411. This count is used as a leading indicator of drilling activity and prospective U.S. oil production, and is relevant to energy sector forecasts and oil market supply expectations.
  • 1:00 PM ET - U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count: The broader total was previously 546, encompassing all active drilling rigs and providing a wider view of domestic drilling activity.
  • 3:00 PM ET - Consumer Credit: Expected at $9.00B versus the prior $4.23B. This release tracks changes in consumer borrowing and can signal shifts in household spending and credit demand.

CFTC speculative positioning reports (3:30 PM ET)

A battery of CFTC data on speculative positions in major futures markets is scheduled for release at 3:30 PM ET. Each of these reports provides a snapshot of net speculative exposure in a specific futures market and is referenced below with its prior reading:

  • CFTC S&P 500 Speculative Positions - previous: -99.8K
  • CFTC Nasdaq 100 Speculative Positions - previous: 28.2K
  • CFTC Crude Oil Speculative Positions - previous: 97.0K
  • CFTC Gold Speculative Positions - previous: 205.4K
  • CFTC Soybeans Speculative Positions - previous: 57.4K
  • CFTC Corn Speculative Positions - previous: -31.7K
  • CFTC Wheat Speculative Positions - previous: -79.4K
  • CFTC Natural Gas Speculative Positions - previous: -163.6K
  • CFTC Silver Speculative Positions - previous: 23.7K
  • CFTC Copper Speculative Positions - previous: 48.4K
  • CFTC Aluminium Speculative Net Positions - previous: -3.6K

These speculative position snapshots are commonly used by traders and analysts to gauge the risk appetite and directional bias of non-commercial participants in both financial and commodity futures markets. Movements from the prior reported levels can be interpreted as shifts in speculative sentiment, though they represent only one input among many that market participants use when assessing near-term price pressures.


Context for market participants

Friday's lineup blends headline political commentary with a comprehensive set of domestic economic reads and positioning data across core futures markets. The Michigan survey components and the consumer credit release speak to household sentiment and borrowing behavior, which are relevant to consumption and credit-sensitive sectors. Baker Hughes rig counts provide a leading signal for oil supply dynamics and are therefore of interest to energy producers and commodity traders. The CFTC speculative positions cover a wide cross-section of markets - equities benchmarks, energy, metals and agricultural commodities - offering an aggregated look at speculative exposure heading into the weekend.

Given the breadth of information scheduled for release, market participants may see pockets of volatility or directional moves as data are reported and as the President's speech is digested later in the day.


Bottom line

Friday's calendar is notable for the potential interplay between policy commentary at 7:00 PM ET and a sequence of economic and positioning reports throughout the day. Traders will be managing a mix of consumer sentiment updates, credit data, drilling indicators and a wide set of speculative futures positions - all of which can influence sector flows and short-term market behavior.

Risks

  • Content or tone of the President's 7:00 PM ET speech could produce unexpected shifts in market sentiment and short-term volatility - this risk affects broad equity markets and sectors sensitive to policy changes.
  • Actual consumer sentiment or credit figures that depart materially from expectations (Michigan survey readings, Consumer Credit) could alter expectations for consumer spending and borrowing - impacting consumer discretionary and financial sectors.
  • Shifts in CFTC speculative positions relative to prior readings could signal changing speculative pressure in commodity and futures markets, potentially leading to price volatility in energy, metals and agricultural markets.

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