Macquarie has launched coverage of Okta with an Outperform rating and set a $100 price target, arguing there is scope for revenue growth to accelerate and for the stock’s valuation to rerate. In early Thursday trading, Okta shares rose about 2.7%.
The brokerage outlined a set of operational adjustments it believes could help restore top-line momentum after a period of slower growth. Those measures include a move toward longer-term customer contracts, changes to Okta’s go-to-market approach beginning in fiscal 2026, closer engagement with channel partners and stronger uptake via the AWS Marketplace.
Macquarie also singled out artificial intelligence as an emerging demand driver. The firm said the rise of agentic AI could broaden the market for identity solutions as organisations seek to secure non-human identities such as software agents. It noted that Okta’s product roadmap is increasingly oriented toward delivering what the company describes as an identity security layer tailored for AI-driven enterprises.
According to Macquarie, a pickup in growth could help reduce the valuation discount Okta has traded with relative to peers - a gap that has persisted since 2022 when the company’s revenue growth slowed. At the same time, the brokerage flagged intensifying competition as a principal risk.
Microsoft was identified as a major rival, and Macquarie noted that cybersecurity platform providers including CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks are expanding into identity as part of broader platform strategies. The firm said that market dynamics could push Okta beyond its role as a pure identity specialist toward a broader place within integrated security systems, where scale and interoperability will matter more.
Macquarie set revenue estimates for Okta of $3.19 billion in fiscal 2027 and $3.49 billion in fiscal 2028, which represent about 9% year-over-year growth in each period. For the same fiscal years, the brokerage forecasts non-GAAP earnings per share of $3.82 and $4.26 respectively.
The analysts identified Okta’s next earnings report, expected in late May or early June, as a likely near-term catalyst for the stock. "We see several levers for top-line acceleration, which could be a catalyst for expansion of OKTA's relatively low trading multiples," the Macquarie analysts said.
Sectors impacted: Technology, cybersecurity, enterprise software, cloud services.
Additional context and limitations: Macquarie’s commentary focuses on the levers it believes could drive Okta’s revenue and valuation, and it presents explicit forecasts for FY27 and FY28. The firm also warns of competitive pressures that could alter the company’s market positioning. The timing and magnitude of any recovery or re-rating will depend on execution of the operational shifts cited and market responses to competitive moves.