Macquarie downgraded DiDi Global from Outperform to Neutral, pointing to heavy spending on international expansion - notably food delivery in Brazil - as a drag on near-term earnings despite ongoing strength in the company's China ride-hailing business. The brokerage also lowered its price target to $3.90 from $9.30, attributing the reduction to increased outlays for overseas operations and investments in robotaxi development.
DiDi reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of 58 billion yuan ($8.0 billion), a 10% increase from the prior year and broadly in line with market expectations. Gross transaction value rose 20% to 124 billion yuan in the quarter, indicating growing activity across its services.
Profitability, however, weakened. Adjusted EBITA swung to a loss of about 2.1 billion yuan for the quarter, short of market expectations. The international segment posted a loss of roughly 3.4 billion yuan, about four times the loss recorded a year earlier. Macquarie said the expanded losses were largely tied to DiDi's push into food delivery in Brazil, where expansion efforts and incentives for users and drivers have increased costs.
The brokerage expects the international segment to generate an EBITA loss of about 10 billion yuan in 2026 as transaction volumes expand and spending continues. While some overseas mobility and fintech businesses have reached profitability, Macquarie emphasized that heavy investment in Brazil's delivery business is weighing on overall results.
DiDi's domestic operations in China showed signs of stability. Macquarie noted that domestic ride-hailing gross transaction value grew 11% in the quarter, and average selling prices rose 1% year over year - the first increase since 2023 - which the firm sees as evidence of an improving balance between supply and demand.
Management, according to the brokerage, expects spending to have peaked in the fourth quarter of 2025 and anticipates a recovery in profitability in 2026. The expected recovery is partly reliant on cost efficiencies from DiDi's bike-hailing network, which management cites as a source of savings.
Despite the outlook for recovering margins, Macquarie highlighted limited visibility around a potential Hong Kong listing and ongoing overseas investments as reasons there are few near-term catalysts for the stock.
Summary
Macquarie cut DiDi's rating and price target, pointing to international expansion costs - especially Brazil food delivery - and greater investment in robotaxi development as pressures on near-term earnings, while China ride-hailing activity remains stable.