Overview
Jefferies' market checks point to Macau's gaming revenue in October tracking toward a 6% to 10% year-over-year decline, a result that would fall short of market expectations that predicted roughly flat growth for the month. That market view, as reported on Bloomberg, had anticipated a flat year-over-year change for October 2026.
Comparative backdrop
The projected shortfall is measured against a relatively strong comparison period. Macau's gaming revenue rose 16% in the same month a year earlier, increasing the difficulty of matching year-over-year growth this October.
Recent activity and daily averages
For the seven days ending on Saturday, Macau's gross gaming revenue averaged about MOP729 million per day. That daily pace is down around 6% from the same seven-day window a year earlier, but it represents a 21% improvement versus September's average daily take.
Mass and VIP segments
Month-to-date figures show gains across both main customer segments. Industry checks indicate mass-market gaming is up between 35% and 38% month-over-month, while VIP gaming is higher by roughly 40% to 45% month-over-month.
Full-month range and industry estimates
Industry sources provided a remainder-of-month daily revenue range of MOP620 million to MOP670 million. If those estimates hold, they imply full-month gross gaming revenue of between MOP21.6 billion and MOP22.6 billion for October.
Visitor flows and hotel demand
During the seven-day National Golden Week holiday, Macau recorded 1.14 million visitor arrivals, up 15.5% year-over-year, with hotel occupancy holding above 90%. Sands China supported visitation in part by hosting NBA China Games on Thursday and Saturday at The Venetian Macao.
Official response and industry positioning
Macau Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai addressed the trend of four consecutive months of year-over-year gross gaming revenue declines at a media briefing on Saturday. Officials are examining whether the slowdown reflects near-term macroeconomic headwinds or indicates that Macau's post-pandemic gaming recovery has reached a more mature phase.
Separately, Jefferies said it continues to favor Wynn and Galaxy, citing those operators' premium-focused customer mixes.
Note: This article presents the above figures and statements as reported in market checks and industry sources.