Lyft's stock plunged 18% in premarket trading after investors reacted to signs that ride growth - a fundamental gauge of its marketplace health - is decelerating. The slowdown comes even as the company has pursued margin improvements, extended its footprint abroad and announced a $1 billion share buyback.
The company warned that it expects adjusted core profit for the first quarter to come in below prior forecasts, attributing the softer outlook to harsh U.S. winter weather and the impact of seasonal costs. In addition to the near-term profit warning, Lyft recorded an unexpected operating loss for 2025, a result that contrasts with progress the firm has made on profitability and cash flow over the past two years.
Analysts say that while Lyft has made measurable gains on the margin and cash fronts, the next phase of its turnaround will hinge on rolling out more complicated growth initiatives to regain momentum in ride volumes against its larger rival, Uber. "To achieve its 2027 target of 4% EBITDA margin, Lyft needs to execute on its premiumization strategy while integrating newer adjacencies and scaling white-glove chauffeuring. These are execution-heavy initiatives," said Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney.
Those strategies, coupled with investments in autonomous vehicles, raise the operational complexity and require upfront spending. Analysts warn this mix of initiatives could put margin pressure on the company if ride growth does not accelerate as planned.
On the volume front, Lyft completed 945.5 million rides in 2025, falling short of the Visible Alpha consensus of 958.4 million. Fourth-quarter activity - typically a stronger stretch for ride-hailing demand - totaled 243.5 million rides, below market expectations of 256.3 million. Annual ride growth also slowed, with expansion decelerating from 18.5% in 2023 to 14.2% in 2025, prompting renewed questions about the pace of demand improvement in North America.
To reduce dependence on its domestic market, Lyft moved into Europe last year via its acquisition of Freenow, broadening its exposure to international markets. Despite the strategic moves and the buyback, Lyft's shares have lagged Uber's performance, while trading at an estimated 23.7 times expected earnings compared with about 20.8 times for the larger ride-hailing company.
Market takeaways
- Slowing ride growth and missed volume expectations are central drivers of the stock's sharp decline.
- Execution risk is elevated as Lyft pursues premium services, adjacencies, and autonomous vehicle investment, which increase complexity and upfront costs.
- International expansion via the Freenow acquisition aims to reduce North American reliance but also introduces new market exposures.
Investors and market observers will be watching whether Lyft can reaccelerate ride growth and smoothly implement the higher-touch and adjacent services it sees as necessary to reach its 2027 margin objective. Until those initiatives show traction, margin and growth targets may remain under scrutiny.