Investors opened Wednesday with heightened caution after a leaked report suggested the Trump administration is positioning for a possible military operation against Iran even as diplomatic engagement continues.
Market prices reflected the unease: broad equities trading was largely unchanged, while safe-haven gold climbed and crude oil rose as participants absorbed the details that have been circulating among macro and commodity traders.
According to the account in the circulating report, U.S. policy toward Iran has been pursued on two parallel tracks - ongoing nuclear-related discussions alongside a major military buildup in the region. The deployment detailed in the report includes two aircraft carriers, roughly a dozen warships, and hundreds of fighter jets routed to the Middle East.
The report also said diplomatic contacts took place on Tuesday in Geneva between advisers to President Trump and Iran's Foreign Minister. Those talks were described as having some positive elements, yet important differences remain, with U.S. officials reportedly doubtful a deal is imminent. A quoted U.S. official said the talks "went well" in some respects but indicated Iran appeared unwilling to accept certain "red lines" defined by the president.
Market participants and official sources conveyed a range of views on the likelihood and timing of military action. The report noted that some Israeli officials were preparing for the possibility of war within days, while U.S. sources suggested that military action could still be weeks away. One Trump adviser was cited as saying there is a "90% chance we see kinetic action in the next few weeks."
Sources cited in the report drew a contrast with a recent limited operation in Venezuela, warning that any campaign against Iran would likely be far broader. Rather than a pinpoint strike, the scenario described would be a massive, joint U.S.-Israeli operation extending over weeks and surpassing the scale of a 12-day Israeli campaign last June that targeted Iran's underground nuclear facilities.
The reported buildup has reportedly accelerated in recent days: more than 150 U.S. military cargo flights have moved weapons systems and ammunition toward the Middle East, and an additional 50 fighter jets were reported deployed to the region in the past 24 hours.
Investors and market watchers remain attentive to both diplomatic signals and operational movements, with commodity and defense-related markets particularly sensitive to any change in the situation on the ground.