Memory equities climbed further Thursday after Kioxia provided a markedly stronger-than-expected outlook for the fourth quarter and Micron leadership reiterated robust demand and constrained supply conditions.
Kioxia’s fiscal third-quarter revenue totaled ¥543 billion, modestly above the ¥541 billion analysts had been forecasting and representing a 20% gain versus the year-ago period. Adjusted operating profit was reported at ¥144.7 billion, roughly in line with market expectations. The company also reported an adjusted gross margin of 40% when excluding joint-venture related items.
The most striking development was Kioxia’s guidance for the fourth quarter. At the midpoint, management sees revenue of ¥890 billion, a figure well ahead of the consensus forecast of ¥648.2 billion. The company projected adjusted net income of ¥340 billion compared with estimates of ¥164 billion, and it forecast adjusted operating profit of ¥485 billion versus the market expectation of ¥248.8 billion.
Kioxia confirmed that its entire NAND flash production capacity for 2026 is already sold out, a disclosure that underscores market tightness. In the third quarter breakdown, SSD and storage revenue rose 7.8% year over year to ¥300.4 billion, and smart device sales climbed 59.1% to ¥186.3 billion.
“I’m structurally still very positive on the NAND market, with expectations that sell side ASP assumptions for the rest of 2026 will need to be revised up…a lot in Japan,” said Joseph Wrenn, Asia Tech Specialist at Mizuho.
The Kioxia outlook reverberated through the memory complex. In premarket trading, Micron shares rose another 3.4% after the stock had gained 9.9% in the previous session. SanDisk, which depends significantly on Kioxia for NAND manufacturing and supply, added 6.2% premarket following a 10.7% jump the day before. In Asia, Kioxia finished the trading day 12.4% higher. Major memory suppliers Samsung and SK Hynix also advanced, up 6.4% and 3.3% respectively.
Micron’s senior finance executive reinforced the supply-constrained narrative at a Wolfe conference. Chief Financial Officer Mark Murphy said the company has moved into high-volume production of its latest high-bandwidth memory, HBM4, and has begun customer shipments.
“We have been in high volume production on HBM4. We’ve commenced customer shipments of HBM4. And we see shipment volumes ramping successfully this calendar, Q1,” Murphy said. “This is a quarter earlier than we mentioned during our December earnings call.”
Murphy also discussed product performance and the overall demand environment. He stated that Micron’s HBM4 delivers performance exceeding 11 gigabits per second and that the company is “highly confident in our HBM4 product performance and quality and reliability.” He characterized the broader business backdrop as very strong, saying the company’s “business is on an extraordinary trajectory” and that demand is “significantly higher than our ability to supply.”
On future supply-demand dynamics, Murphy said, “We continue to expect supply demand to be tight beyond 26. We’re doing everything we can to plan and invest appropriately for our customers’ needs over time.”
Implications for markets
- Memory chip manufacturers and component suppliers experienced broad share-price gains following Kioxia’s outlook and Micron’s commentary.
- Tighter-than-anticipated NAND supply through 2026 could affect pricing, manufacturing allocations and product availability across storage and device segments.
- High-bandwidth memory ramps may influence demand dynamics for high-performance computing and AI-related hardware that rely on HBM technologies.
Market moves noted in this report
- Micron (NASDAQ:MU) rose 3.4% in premarket trade after a 9.9% increase in the prior session.
- SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) increased 6.2% premarket after jumping 10.7% the previous day.
- Kioxia ended the day 12.4% higher in Asia; Samsung (KS:005930) and SK Hynix (KS:000660) rose 6.4% and 3.3% respectively.