KeyBanc has moved Symbotic Inc. to an Overweight rating from Sector Weight and established a $70 price target following discussions with company management in New York and Boston. The brokerage said those meetings reinforced its view that Symbotic's execution has improved and that the firm now has better line of sight into faster deployments.
The analyst note highlighted the company's ability to translate recent operating expense efficiencies into quicker installations while working through a backlog that KeyBanc pegs at roughly $22.3 billion. The firm also called out the potential for fresh growth catalysts as Symbotic expands into additional end-markets, naming frozen and perishable goods, micro-fulfillment, healthcare and apparel as areas of opportunity.
Financial outlook retained and extended
KeyBanc kept its fiscal 2026 revenue forecast at $2.90 billion, which it noted is above consensus of $2.77 billion, and maintained its fiscal 2027 revenue projection of $3.88 billion versus a consensus $3.55 billion. The brokerage introduced a fiscal 2028 revenue estimate of $4.93 billion, compared with consensus of $4.61 billion.
On profitability, the firm reiterated above-consensus EBITDA forecasts for fiscal 2026 and 2027 and added a fiscal 2028 EBITDA estimate of $739.3 million.
Execution trending better after earlier disruptions
KeyBanc noted that the upgrade follows stronger execution across the past four quarters. Over that stretch, Symbotic on average exceeded the top end of its quarterly revenue guidance by about 4% and outperformed EBITDA guidance by roughly 24%. That improvement comes after a choppy fiscal 2024 and a disrupted first quarter of fiscal 2025 that were tied to changes in the company's installation strategy.
Looking ahead, the brokerage expects additional margin and efficiency gains as Symbotic begins deploying its next-generation storage system in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026. Management described the new system as about 40% denser and requiring roughly 20% fewer parts, traits that should reduce costs and shorten installation timelines. KeyBanc said larger customers are likely to consolidate phases into a single cycle, which would raise average selling prices for new systems to about $100 million to $120 million, up from roughly $50 million to $60 million previously.
Implications for markets and sectors
These developments have direct relevance for industrial automation and warehousing equipment markets as well as retail and supply-chain operations that rely on automated storage and retrieval systems. If deployments accelerate as projected and ASPs climb for new systems, Symbotic's revenue and margin profile could materially change in the coming fiscal years.