European chemical companies appear positioned to benefit from a potential market rebound in 2026, according to a recent sector note by Kepler Cheuvreux. The brokerage group says the industry endured a challenging 2025 driven by tariff uncertainty, widespread destocking and pervasive pricing pressure across a range of end markets.
Kepler’s analysis cautions that the early part of 2026 may remain subdued, but it points to leading indicators that suggest a cyclical inflection could arrive later in the year. The report emphasizes that demand has stopped deteriorating and that pricing stress is beginning to ease in several value chains - conditions consistent with a recovery scenario emerging in the second half of 2026.
Companies in the sector are said to be concentrating on factors they can control to navigate the tough environment. Kepler highlights measures such as cost reduction programs, European restructuring, disciplined capital expenditure policies and portfolio simplification as common management responses aimed at protecting margins and cash flow until market conditions improve.
The report also notes that many cyclical chemical stocks currently trade at historically undemanding valuations, which could provide upside if demand returns. Yet Kepler cautions that material macro and geopolitical risks remain, including energy supply uncertainties and the possibility of gas shortages in Germany, which could derail a recovery or weigh on margins.
Top names identified
Kepler Cheuvreux lists several leading European chemical groups among its top picks, including BASF and Bayer AG.
BASF (ETR:BASFN) - Kepler describes BASF as having the broadest exposure across the chemicals complex, giving it meaningful operating leverage should markets recover. Analysts cited in the report point to supportive valuation, visible cost savings initiatives and shareholder returns as positives. The company’s fully integrated structure is noted as a source of cost synergies and a diversified revenue mix that retains exposure to an anticipated cyclical upswing.
Separately, Deutsche Bank downgraded BASF to Hold from Buy, saying it expects challenging industry conditions to persist into 2026. BASF also reported an accident at its Ludwigshafen plant in which two employees were injured.
Bayer AG (ETR:BAYGN) - Kepler characterizes Bayer as gradually lowering its litigation risk profile while showing strong pipeline momentum across its Crop Science and Pharmaceutical divisions. These trends underpin expectations for a multi-year earnings recovery, the report says. Kepler highlights clinical and regulatory developments, including late-stage data showing the experimental drug asundexian reduced the risk of secondary strokes by 26%, and the receipt of Breakthrough Therapy Designation from both U.S. and Chinese regulators for sevabertinib in a specific type of lung cancer.
The note adds that defensive sub-sectors such as industrial gases continue to provide earnings stability but offer limited upside at current valuations relative to more cyclical chemical names that could benefit from a broader sector recovery.
Implications
If Kepler’s outlook proves accurate, cyclical chemical producers could see improved top-line and margin dynamics in the back half of 2026 as demand stabilizes and pricing pressure diminishes. Companies that have implemented cost and portfolio actions may be better positioned to capture gains from a nascent recovery.