Summary
Kepler Cheuvreux downgraded HelloFresh SE to a "hold" rating from "buy" and cut its target price to €5.50 from €10.50, a 47.6% reduction. The move follows preliminary fiscal 2025 figures in which HelloFresh reported revenue of approximately €6.76 billion, an 11.8% year-over-year decline and below the company's constant-currency guidance of negative 6% to negative 8%.
Results and near-term momentum
Kepler's note highlights that fourth-quarter 2025 revenue fell roughly 14% year-over-year, outpacing the full-year decline and coming in beneath consensus expectations. Fiscal 2025 adjusted EBITDA was reported at about €423 million, which Kepler says sits at the lower boundary of HelloFresh's guidance range of €415 million to €465 million.
The research note cites HelloFresh's own commentary that its ready-to-eat (RTE) recovery "is pacing below expectations, with lingering customer impacts post-bottlenecks" despite operational improvements. In response, Kepler materially revised its 2026 RTE revenue forecast from a previously modeled positive 13% growth to a negative 3.5% contraction.
Segment performance
For fiscal 2025 the ready-to-eat segment produced €1.91 billion of revenue, down 6% year-over-year, and recorded an adjusted EBITDA loss of €34 million, equivalent to a negative 1.8% margin. By contrast, the meal-kit business delivered a 13.5% adjusted EBITDA margin in fiscal 2025, which Kepler interprets as evidence that HelloFresh's efficiency program is having impact.
Nonetheless, meal-kit revenue totaled €4.70 billion in fiscal 2025, a 15% decline versus the prior year. Kepler projects meal-kit revenue will fall another 9% in 2026 to €4.28 billion.
Revised group outlook and profitability cuts
Kepler now anticipates group revenue will decline 6.8% to €6.30 billion in 2026, followed by a further 1.7% drop to €6.19 billion in 2027. The broker contrasts its view with consensus expectations, noting consensus had looked for positive 3% group revenue growth in 2027.
On profitability, Kepler trimmed its 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate by 14.6% to €411 million from €481 million, lowering the adjusted EBITDA margin estimate to 6.5% from 7.1%. Adjusted EBIT for 2026 was cut nearly 29.8% to €166 million from a prior €236 million forecast.
Adjusted earnings per share for 2026 were reduced 36.6% to €0.47 from €0.74 under Kepler's revised model. The analyst also reduced the long-term assumed EBIT margin to 4% from 5%, attributing the change to what the report calls "structurally higher friction in the demand engine."
Valuation inputs and market reaction
Kepler raised its weighted average cost of capital to 12.5% from 12%. As of Feb. 13, 2026 HelloFresh shares traded at €5.22, implying a market capitalization of €860.3 million. The stock had fallen 15.2% year-to-date and was trading close to its 52-week low of €5.08.
Cash generation
Despite the top-line pressure, HelloFresh generated €71.2 million of attributable free cash flow in fiscal 2025, representing an 8.4% yield. Kepler projects free cash flow to rise to €86.6 million in 2026 and to €110.9 million in 2027.
Analyst view and next steps
Sven Sauer of Kepler Cheuvreux summarizes the broker's stance: "we remain on the sidelines pending clearer evidence of RTE reacceleration and stabilisation in the meal-kit business." The note adds that "despite trading at historically low valuation levels and HelloFresh's attractive FCF generation, we do not see a compelling entry point."
Tools and screening
The report includes an overview of proprietary screening tools that evaluate HFGG alongside other companies on numerous financial metrics. The note says the tool applies algorithmic screening to identify risk-reward opportunities but does not change Kepler's current hold recommendation pending clearer operational signs.
Implications for investors
Kepler's downgrade followed a string of weaker-than-expected revenue prints, an underperforming ready-to-eat recovery, and downward revisions to near-term revenue and profit forecasts. The broker's adjustments to valuation assumptions and margins underpin the lower target price and the move to a hold rating.
Investors looking for evidence to re-engage will need to see demonstrable reacceleration in RTE sales and stabilization in the meal-kit revenue trajectory before Kepler anticipates moving off the sidelines.