KBC Groep on Thursday published fourth-quarter 2025 results that came in slightly ahead of market expectations and outlined guidance for 2026 and 2028 that the company says should drive continued revenue growth. The Belgian bancassurance group reported adjusted pre-tax profit of €1.4 billion, roughly 5% above consensus forecasts and about 7% higher than the estimates from UBS.
Revenues for the quarter reached €3.2 billion, about 2% above the levels analysts had forecast, underpinned by net interest income that outperformed estimates by 3%.
On the cost side, operating expenses were about 1% above forecast. Management attributed part of the excess to a one-off variable compensation payment. Impairments amounted to €0.1 billion, in line with expectations, although the reported impairments included non-credit items that analysts cautioned should not be extrapolated into future quarters.
KBC's reported capital position missed the street by 10 basis points. That outcome followed a dividend payment of €4.1, which was approximately 6% below what analysts had modelled.
Guidance and near-term outlook
For 2026 KBC set explicit targets that are modestly above consensus. The bank expects net interest income of €6.73 billion, compared with a consensus view of €6.61 billion. Insurance revenues are guided to €3.44 billion versus a consensus of €3.43 billion. Expenses are projected at €4.95 billion, above the consensus projection of €4.79 billion. On balance, the 2026 outlook implies roughly a 1% upgrade to consensus forecasts, though the company noted that some of the higher costs may relate to recent merger and acquisition activity.
Medium-term targets to 2028
KBC's medium-term guidance to 2028 shows larger upside relative to current analyst expectations. The company expects net interest income to expand at a compound annual growth rate of 8.6% to reach €7.77 billion by 2028, versus a consensus projection of €7.34 billion. Insurance income is guided to grow at a 7.5% CAGR to €3.98 billion (consensus €3.91 billion). Total revenues are expected to increase at a 7.7% CAGR to €15.24 billion compared with consensus of €14.85 billion. Expenses are guided to grow at a 4.3% CAGR to €5.22 billion, versus a consensus view of €5.09 billion. Taken together, these 2028 targets imply approximately 4-5% upside to current consensus forecasts.
Implications
The quarterly beat was modest and concentrated in net interest income and top-line revenue, while costs edged higher and capital came in slightly below expectations after the dividend. The 2026 outlook provides only a small upgrade to consensus, but the 2028 medium-term trajectory presents more material upside for net interest income, insurance income and total revenues compared with current street estimates.
Summary of quarter and guidance
- Adjusted pre-tax profit: €1.4 billion - 5% above consensus, 7% above UBS estimate.
- Revenues: €3.2 billion - 2% above forecasts; net interest income 3% above expectations.
- Operating expenses: 1% above forecast, partly due to a one-off variable compensation payment.
- Impairments: €0.1 billion - in line with expectations but including non-credit items analysts say should not be extrapolated.
- Capital position: 10 basis points below expectations following a €4.1 dividend, which was 6% lower than forecasts.
All projections and comparisons above are those provided by KBC and the consensus figures cited by the company in its reporting.