JPMorgan has moved MercadoLibre's rating to Overweight from Neutral, saying the balance of competitive forces appears to be shifting in favor of the e-commerce leader. The brokerage cited several recent developments that it interprets as easing downside risk to near-term profit forecasts and as supportive of continued top-line momentum in MercadoLibre's largest market, Brazil.
One key factor behind the change is a recent increase in take rates by Shopee, which JPMorgan notes brought Shopee's pricing on higher-priced items closer to MercadoLibre's level. The bank views that move as a sign that some of the fiercest promotional pressure is moderating. In addition, JPMorgan emphasized that MercadoLibre has recently implemented inflation-driven increases to its fixed fees, a step the firm sees as evidence the company feels more comfortable with the current competitive backdrop.
Amazon remains active in the market with promotional activity, but JPMorgan judges the overall effect of those actions to be smaller relative to the changes observed with other players. The brokerage also observed that Shopee's take-rate gains are in part offset by PIX subsidies, but that there appear to be net savings on Shopee's side despite the subsidies.
On earnings, JPMorgan said it no longer anticipates material downside to market expectations for 2026 and 2027 profitability. Analysts had pared estimates sharply since mid-2025 amid concerns triggered when Shopee lowered its free-shipping threshold, but JPMorgan now believes consensus forecasts better reflect the competitive environment.
The bank singled out Brazil for particularly strong near-term performance. It projects that fourth-quarter gross merchandise value, or GMV, in Brazil will grow above 30% in local currency, supported by easier year-ago comparisons and increasing engagement with MercadoLibre's app. For 2026, JPMorgan expects Brazil GMV to rise roughly 25%.
Reflecting the brighter outlook, JPMorgan raised its December 2026 price target on MercadoLibre to $2,800 from $2,650 and boosted its underlying revenue and profit projections. The firm now anticipates 2026 revenue growth of 35%, operating profit growth of 34% and earnings growth of 41%. JPMorgan said these upgrades are supported by stronger currencies in Brazil and Mexico, an anticipated recovery in margins and faster expansion in MercadoLibre's credit business.
Valuation metrics cited by the brokerage show the stock trading at about 35 times expected 2026 earnings and 26 times expected 2027 earnings. JPMorgan projects profit will grow at an approximate 34% annual pace through 2029, and it named MercadoLibre its top pick within Latin American technology.
"Competitive environment shows signs of improvement, with Shopee increasing take rates last week and practically matching MELI's rates...while part of these gains are given back as PIX subsidies, we believe there are net savings on Shopee's side. Also, MELI passed inflation on to its fixed fees three weeks ago, which suggests some comfort with the competitive environment," the JPMorgan analyst said.
Overall, JPMorgan's upgrade reflects a reassessment of both the near-term competitive dynamics and the company's medium-term profit trajectory, driven by pricing developments across platforms, fee adjustments at MercadoLibre and continued strength in its Brazilian operations.