JPMorgan has downgraded Novo Nordisk to Neutral from Overweight following the release of REDEFINE-4 data for the company’s obesity candidate CagriSema, which the bank says shows a weaker competitive position compared with Eli Lilly’s Zepbound. The firm also slashed its target price on the stock to 250 Danish crowns, down from 350.
In Copenhagen trading, Novo Nordisk’s shares fell roughly 2.6% after the analyst note.
Analyst assessment
Richard Vosser at JPMorgan concluded that the REDEFINE-4 results reveal an inferior weight-loss profile for CagriSema relative to Zepbound and a smaller glucose-lowering effect in Type 2 diabetes. Those outcomes prompted the bank to revisit its revenue and earnings forecasts for Novo.
Vosser said he had previously modeled a limited market share for CagriSema based on earlier trial data, but the new readout leads him to expect an even harder uptake for the product given the apparent inferiority to Zepbound.
Forecast revisions
JPMorgan reduced its CagriSema sales forecasts by 40% to 63% for the 2027-2030 period. It also trimmed projections for the amycretin program by 1% to 23% to reflect anticipated lower pricing. Collectively, these adjustments resulted in group sales cuts of 2% to 16% for 2026-2030 and reductions in adjusted EPS of 2% to 17% over the same timeframe.
The bank now places its 2026-2030 estimates for Novo 5% to 21% below Bloomberg consensus, and expects the company’s EPS growth to be broadly in line with large-cap European pharmaceutical peers.
Vosser described the CagriSema profile as one that "seems hard to recover from" after the REDEFINE-4 inferiority result, even though the drug produced weight loss around 20%, which remains ahead of Wegovy but below Zepbound’s roughly 23% outcome reported in the data referenced by the analyst.
Other programs and timelines
The analyst continues to see potential in amycretin, particularly given its prospects as an oral therapy, but emphasized that investor confidence is likely to depend on forthcoming Phase III data currently expected in 2028-2029.
Counterpoint from another bank
In a separate note, Barclays expressed a more constructive short-term view on demand for Oral Wegovy, highlighting encouraging early prescription trends. Barclays reported Week 7 prescriptions at about 48,000 - up 12% week over week - and said daily total prescriptions showed a continued strong ramp.
This episode prompted JPMorgan to adjust its stance on Novo’s near- and medium-term commercial prospects, with material downward revisions to product-specific and group-level forecasts. Market participants will likely watch upcoming clinical readouts and prescription trends closely for signals on the company’s recovery path.