Stock Markets February 2, 2026

J.P. Morgan Sees Gold Surging to $6,300 an Ounce by End of 2026

Brokerage points to persistent central-bank buying and investor demand amid recent volatility

By Avery Klein
J.P. Morgan Sees Gold Surging to $6,300 an Ounce by End of 2026

J.P. Morgan projects gold will hit $6,300 per ounce by the close of 2026, citing continued central-bank purchases and a structural shift toward real assets. The forecast accompanies a crowded field of analyst price targets for 2026, even as bullion experienced a sharp one-day decline and further near-term pressure from higher margin requirements.

Key Points

  • J.P. Morgan projects gold will reach $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026 and forecasts central-bank purchases of 800 tons in 2026 - impacts the commodities sector and financial markets exposed to safe-haven assets.
  • The note emphasizes a structural reserve diversification trend and the outperformance of real assets versus paper assets as drivers of medium-term gold bullishness - relevant to portfolio allocation and asset managers.
  • Short-term market stress has been substantial, with bullion falling over 9.8% on January 30 and further declines tied to higher CME margin requirements - affecting derivatives markets and short-term liquidity providers.

J.P. Morgan now expects gold to trade at $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026, according to a note published on Monday. The bank raised its 2026 outlook alongside a forecast that central banks will purchase 800 tons of gold next year, reflecting what it describes as an ongoing trend of reserve diversification that remains unfinished.

In its note, J.P. Morgan framed its stance in confident terms: "Even with the recent near-term volatility, we remain firmly bullishly convicted in gold over the medium-term on the back of a clean, structural, continued diversification trend that has further to run amid a still well-entrenched regime of real asset outperformance vs paper assets," the brokerage said.

The bullish medium-term view comes amid significant short-term turbulence. Bullion plunged more than 9.8% on January 30, marking its largest single-day drop since 1983, and the metal continued to slide on Monday as increased margin requirements at the CME added to selling pressure.

Deutsche Bank, while acknowledging recent price adjustments, reiterated a 2026 target of $6,000 an ounce on Monday, underscoring that several major banks continue to see elevated prices for the precious metal over the coming year.


Below is a list of analysts and the most recent end-of-period gold price forecasts they have published for 2026. Where the agency provided additional timing or conditional notes, those have been preserved as presented:

  • J.P. Morgan - Expects prices reaching $6,300 by 4Q26; Forecast date: February 2, 2026; Price target: $6,300.
  • UBS - Raises target to $6,200 for March, June, and September 2026; Forecast date: January 29, 2026.
  • Deutsche Bank - $5,500; $6,000 in 2026; Forecast date: January 26, 2026.
  • Societe Generale - $6,000 by the end of 2026; Forecast date: January 26, 2026.
  • Morgan Stanley - $4,600; Bull case is $5,700 for second half of 2026; Forecast date: January 23, 2026.
  • Goldman Sachs - $5,400 by December 2026; Forecast date: January 22, 2026.
  • Citi Research - $5,000; Raises 0-3 month price target to $5,000; Forecast date: January 13, 2026.
  • HSBC - $4,587; $4,450 by year-end 2026; Forecast date: January 8, 2026.
  • ANZ - $4,445; $4,400 by year-end and $4,600 by June 2026; Forecast dates: October 16, 2025 and 2025 (as presented).
  • Bank of America - $4,438; 2026 gold outlook raised to $5,000 in 2025; Forecast date: October 13, 2025.
  • Standard Chartered - $4,488; Forecast date: October 13, 2025.
  • Commerzbank - $4,900; $4,800 by mid-2026; Forecast date: January 13, 2026.

These forecasts represent end-of-period targets as compiled in the note. They span a wide range, reflecting differing assumptions about demand, reserve diversification, and price path timing.


Policy decisions by central banks and investor allocation choices remain central to the outlook for the bullion market, according to the note. J.P. Morgan's projection and the broader set of analyst targets highlight persistent expectations for strong demand, even as short-term price dynamics demonstrate significant volatility.

Risks

  • Near-term volatility in gold prices, including large single-day moves, creates market risk for traders and leveraged positions - relevant to derivatives and exchange participants.
  • Higher margin requirements can amplify selling pressure and reduce liquidity, posing execution and funding risks for market participants - impacts futures markets and clearing members.
  • Divergence in analyst forecasts indicates uncertainty around the timing and magnitude of price moves, which can complicate hedging and allocation decisions for institutional investors - affects asset managers and sovereign wealth funds.

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