J.P. Morgan initiated coverage of Comet Holding with an "overweight" recommendation and set a December 2027 price target of CHF335 - a 35.2% premium to Monday's close of CHF247.80. The research note singled out share gains in the RF power generator market and a company cost restructuring as the primary levers that should drive earnings, a view that coincided with Comet shares rising by more than 5% on the session.
The brokerage projects group revenue will increase from CHF457 million in 2025 to CHF738 million by 2028, while adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to expand from 10.1% to 25% over the same timeframe.
J.P. Morgan's adjusted EPS forecasts for Comet stand at CHF11.92 in 2027 and CHF17.01 in 2028, which the firm notes sit 14% and 13% above Bloomberg consensus estimates respectively. In its coverage note the analysts wrote: "Comet can see very strong revenue and earnings growth ahead of peers, as the company better positions itself for growth and with a leaner cost structure as well as benefiting from the broad market upcycle."
A central plank of the bank's bullish view is the Synertia RF power generator, launched by Comet in July 2022. J.P. Morgan models Synertia capturing about 8.5% of an estimated $1.7 billion RF generator market by 2028, which would translate to roughly CHF111 million in generator revenue for Comet.
Today Comet's share of that market is around 2%, compared with a c.40% share for market leader Advanced Energy. Management highlighted progress at its November 2025 capital markets day - reporting more than 15 high-volume purchase orders and over 30 ongoing qualification processes - and disclosed further wins in its fourth-quarter results released on March 6. J.P. Morgan adds that "each 1pp share gain in RF Generator is worth ~2pp of growth to Comet."
The group's Plasma Control Technologies (PCT) division remains the largest contributor, representing approximately 60% of total group revenue and roughly 90% of estimated adjusted EBITDA in 2026. PCT supplies RF matching networks and vacuum capacitors to semiconductor toolmakers, with Lam Research accounting for 41% of PCT revenue and 23% of group revenue in 2025.
For valuation the bank used a sum-of-the-parts approach. J.P. Morgan applies a 16x multiple to PCT's 2028 EBITDA - a valuation level the firm says is a 35% discount to VAT Group and about a 10% discount to Advanced Energy - and assigns a 6x multiple to each of Comet's X-ray divisions, aligned with peer Varex.
On cash flow, J.P. Morgan forecasts free cash flow will be negative CHF13 million in 2026, reflecting CHF44 million of capital expenditure for a new manufacturing facility in Penang, Malaysia. Free cash flow is then expected to recover to CHF62 million in 2027 and CHF117 million in 2028.
The research note flags several risks to the outlook: slower-than-expected adoption of the Synertia RF generator, delays in new NAND capacity additions that could weigh on equipment demand, and competitive pressure from Chinese rivals. The bank also highlights currency risk - management's mid-term guidance assumes a USD/CHF exchange rate of 0.70 in 2028 versus a spot rate of roughly 0.79 - and notes China accounted for about 25% of group sales in 2025.
J.P. Morgan additionally observes that Comet's shares have materially underperformed their sector benchmark, trailing the European Semiconductors and SemiCap Index by 67 percentage points since January 2025.
Separately, the article noted an AI-driven screener service that evaluates COTNE alongside thousands of companies using more than 100 financial metrics. That service promotes its ability to surface opportunities by assessing fundamentals, momentum, and valuation, and references prior examples of its top picks. The promotional material highlights past winners it identified, including Super Micro Computer (+185%) and AppLovin (+157%).
Summary
J.P. Morgan's new coverage positions Comet to benefit from share gains for its Synertia RF power generator and from a leaner cost base, forecasting substantial revenue and margin expansion through 2028 while identifying execution and market risks tied to adoption, NAND capacity timing, China competition and currency moves.
Key points
- J.P. Morgan initiates Comet at "overweight" with a CHF335 price target for December 2027, implying ~35.2% upside; shares rose over 5% on the news - sectors affected: semiconductors, industrial equipment.
- Revenue is modeled to grow from CHF457m in 2025 to CHF738m in 2028, with adjusted EBITDA margins expanding from 10.1% to 25% - market and corporate finance implications for hardware suppliers and capital goods.
- Synertia RF generator adoption is central to the thesis - expected to capture ~8.5% of a $1.7bn market by 2028, generating ~CHF111m in revenue; current market share is ~2% versus Advanced Energy's ~40% - impacts RF power and semiconductor tool ecosystems.
Risks and uncertainties
- Slower RF generator adoption would directly reduce projected revenue upside - affects the semiconductor equipment supply chain.
- Delays to new NAND capacity additions could weaken end-market demand for Comet's products - relevant to semiconductor capital expenditure cycles.
- Competitive pressure from Chinese suppliers and currency moves such as USD/CHF depreciation can hit sales and margins; China made up about 25% of group sales in 2025 - broader regional market risk for exporters.