J.P. Morgan's revised long-term framework for gold, which sets a structural price assumption at $4,500 per ounce, has enlarged the theoretical fair values across EMEA-listed gold producers. Within this updated context, the investment bank highlights two companies as its top picks for the region: AngloGold Ashanti and Fresnillo Plc.
Both firms are singled out not simply for exposure to higher spot metal prices but for the combination of operating leverage, expected free cash flow improvement and growing balance sheet flexibility that could support shareholder return initiatives.
AngloGold Ashanti
AngloGold Ashanti is presented as a core conviction within the EMEA gold coverage. J.P. Morgan points to significant operating leverage to a higher gold price and an accelerating inflection in free cash flow as key drivers of the call.
Under the bank's present spot price assumptions, projected 2026-27 EBITDA for AngloGold Ashanti sits materially above consensus estimates. The outperformance is attributed to stronger realized prices and disciplined cost control across a diversified asset base.
J.P. Morgan expects the company's balance sheet to trend further into net cash, a development that would expand capital allocation choices and could enable incremental shareholder returns, including the potential for buybacks. Despite this improving financial profile, the stock continues to trade at a discount to several global peers on forward EV/EBITDA metrics, leaving scope for multiple expansion should cash returns become more visible.
Fresnillo Plc
Fresnillo is identified as having the strongest mark-to-market leverage among the names covered, reflecting its exposure to both gold and silver in a rising precious metals environment.
The bank's forward EBITDA projections for 2026-27 imply substantial upside versus consensus for Fresnillo, supported by higher realized metal prices and steady production guidance. That outlook positions the company to generate significant free cash flow, which would further bolster its net cash position and underpin dividend capacity.
Valuation on Fresnillo remains below historical forward multiples, which suggests room for a meaningful re-rating if metal prices stay elevated. J.P. Morgan characterizes the company as a high-beta preferred play within the sector due to the combination of earnings sensitivity, financial flexibility and potential valuation catch-up.
The bank's framework and these two highlighted names reflect a scenario in which sustained higher metal prices amplify earnings and cash generation across select EMEA miners, with implications for balance sheets and shareholder returns. How these dynamics play out will depend on the persistence of elevated spot prices and the companies' ability to convert improved realizations into durable free cash flow and strengthened net cash positions.