Stock Markets March 13, 2026

J.P. Morgan Elevates Fresenius as Top Pick in European Medtech After Sector Rout

Brokerage cites valuation gap and portfolio momentum, with Kabi and biopharma driving upside potential

By Avery Klein
J.P. Morgan Elevates Fresenius as Top Pick in European Medtech After Sector Rout

J.P. Morgan has identified Fresenius SE as its preferred stock in the European medical technology and services sector following a broad market selloff that pushed valuations to levels only seen during the post-global financial crisis recovery. The firm assigns an overweight rating and sees 15-25% upside over 12 months, citing Kabi division momentum, strong biopharma growth, and clearer EPS reporting after excluding Fresenius Medical Care.

Key Points

  • J.P. Morgan ranks Fresenius SE as its top pick in European medtech, assigning an "overweight" rating and targeting fair value in the mid to high 50s, implying about 15-25% upside from 46.49.
  • Valuation is supported by projected core EPS of 3.11 for 2026 and 3.32 for 2027, using P/E multiples of 15x to 18x.
  • Kabi division momentum and a strong biopharma performance, including 97% year-on-year growth in Q4 2025 and initial ustekinumab deliveries under the CivicaScript deal, are cited as primary upside drivers.

J.P. Morgan has placed Fresenius SE at the top of its list among European medtech companies after a sector-wide correction depressed multiples to rare lows, the brokerage said in a note dated Friday.

The Frankfurt-listed healthcare group was trading at 46.49 at the time of the note. J.P. Morgan calculates a 12-month fair value in the "mid to high 50s," which translates into an implied upside of roughly 15-25% from the then-current price. The firm assigned an "overweight" rating to Fresenius SE.

To underpin its valuation work, J.P. Morgan uses core earnings per share projections of 3.11 for 2026 and 3.32 for 2027, applying price-to-earnings multiples in the range of 15x to 18x. Those assumptions form the basis for the mid-to-high 50s fair value cited by the brokerage.

The analysts said the recent decline in Fresenius shares reflected de-grossing activity rather than any fundamental revision to the companys outlook. J.P. Morgan highlighted that Fresenius remains a name where management is expected to deliver another year of beating expectations and raising guidance, while the stock continues to trade on what the firm describes as an attractive multiple.


Drivers of the bull case

J.P. Morgans positive view centers on Kabi, Freseniuss nutrition and pharmaceutical division. The brokerage projects Kabi revenue growth in the high single-digit range for the first quarter of 2026, versus consensus expectation of roughly 6.5%. The note also allows for an "outside chance" of low double-digit growth in that quarter after Kabi posted 10% growth in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Biopharma is flagged by J.P. Morgan as a near-term upside catalyst. The segment delivered 97% year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, the strongest quarterly rate since the second quarter of 2024. That surge was attributed to new product launches and the initial shipments of ustekinumab under the CivicaScript agreement that closed in December.

Management indicated the possibility of flat sequential biopharma revenue in the first quarter of 2026, which J.P. Morgan noted would still equate to more than 50% year-on-year growth.

Additionally, Fresenius has moved to report earnings per share excluding Fresenius Medical Care. J.P. Morgan said this change simplifies valuation by isolating the operating performance of the group from the separate listed medical care business.


Sector valuation backdrop

The brokerage positioned the recommendation within a broader market context. The MSCI Europe Healthcare Equipment and Services sector was trading at 19.1x 12-month forward price-to-earnings, roughly 7% below its 25-year historical average of 20.5x. On a relative basis versus the broader European index, the sector was at a 16% discount to its long-run average, a gap J.P. Morgan said had only been seen once over the past two decades during the post-global financial crisis recovery.

Of the 20 medtech stocks tracked in the note, only two were trading higher year-to-date as of March 12, 2026: Philips and Elekta. Fresenius SE itself was down 5.1% year-to-date, a decline that the note described as relatively contained compared with several peers. Gerresheimer was down 34.5% year-to-date, while Carl Zeiss Meditec had fallen 41%.


Analyst ratings

J.P. Morgans coverage in the note assigns an "overweight" rating to Fresenius SE while assigning an "underweight" rating to Fresenius Medical Care, the separately listed entity.

The brokerages view blends company-specific operational momentum in divisions such as Kabi and biopharma with a wider sector valuation reset, forming the rationale for elevating Fresenius as the top pick within European medtech.

Risks

  • The recent share price weakness has been attributed to de-grossing rather than changes in fundamentals; if market positioning shifts further, stock volatility could persist, affecting medtech and healthcare equities.
  • Biopharma growth expectations include potential for flat sequential revenue in Q1 2026; while still representing high year-on-year growth, slower sequential performance could temper near-term sentiment in pharmaceuticals and biotech-exposed segments.
  • Sector valuation is below long-term averages; continued sector-wide pressure or a broader market downturn could limit the upside for stocks in European healthcare equipment and services.

More from Stock Markets

Carvana to Split Stock 5-for-1, Citing Accessibility for Employees; Shares Tick Higher Mar 13, 2026 Wells Fargo Raises Ollie's to Overweight, Cites Store Growth and Discount Demand Mar 13, 2026 Hims & Hers Stock Posts Record Weekly Gain After Novo Nordisk Agreement Mar 13, 2026 Shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Fall After Analyst Lowers Targets, Cites IPO Delay Risk Mar 13, 2026 Pentagon Weighs Additional Warships for Strait of Hormuz as Attacks Rise Mar 13, 2026