Investors face a tightly packed set of U.S. data on Wednesday, February 11, 2026, that could influence short-term market positioning. The January jobs report - covering nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings - arrives at the same time market participants will receive the weekly EIA crude oil inventories reading. Remarks from Federal Reserve officials, including FOMC member Michelle Bowman and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, are also scheduled and may provide further context to the economic readings.
Below is a rundown of the principal data releases and related events that traders will watch throughout the day. Each item includes the market expectation where available and the most recent comparable reading, enabling investors to see how the forecasts line up against the prior data.
Major economic releases
- 8:30 AM ET - Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan): Expected 66K; previous 50K. This headline employment series counts the change in the number of people employed outside of the farming sector, and is a primary gauge of U.S. labor market momentum.
- 8:30 AM ET - Unemployment Rate (Jan): Expected 4.4%; previous 4.4%. This ratio measures the share of the labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment.
- 8:30 AM ET - Average Hourly Earnings m/m (Jan): Expected 0.3%; previous 0.3%. This month-over-month change tracks movements in the price of labor paid by businesses, excluding agriculture.
- 10:30 AM ET - EIA Crude Oil Inventories: Previous -3.455M barrels. The weekly U.S. commercial crude stock change is a closely watched indicator for energy market conditions.
- 2:00 PM ET - Federal Budget Balance (Jan): Expected -$92.3B; previous -$145.0B. This number quantifies the difference between federal receipts and outlays for the month.
Additional key items during the session
Concurrent with the headlines above, several other measures and events will be released or take place. They provide more granular context on employment, energy flows and market funding conditions.
- 8:30 AM ET - Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan): Expected 70K; previous 37K. This series isolates employment changes in the private sector.
- 8:30 AM ET - Average Hourly Earnings y/y (Jan): Expected 3.6%; previous 3.8%. This reflects the 12-month change in the wages businesses pay workers.
- 8:30 AM ET - Participation Rate (Jan): Previous 62.4%. This measures the share of the working-age population that is either employed or actively seeking work.
- 8:30 AM ET - Payrolls Benchmark, n.s.a. (Jan): Previous -911.00K. This figure shows the difference between benchmark employment levels and sample-based estimates.
- 10:15 AM ET - FOMC Member Bowman Speaks: Market listeners will watch her comments for indications of the central bank's assessment of the economy and policy outlook.
- 10:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Cushing Oil Inventories: Previous -0.743M barrels. This tracks crude storage changes at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub.
- 1:00 PM ET - 10-Year Note Auction: Previous yield 4.173%. The auction outcome is a gauge of investor demand for medium-term U.S. government debt.
Other economic and market-relevant items on the schedule
- 7:00 AM ET - MBA Mortgage Applications: Previous -8.9%. The Mortgage Bankers Association data show the week-over-week change in new mortgage applications.
- 7:00 AM ET - MBA Mortgage Market Index: Previous 330.8. This index aggregates mortgage application activity.
- 7:00 AM ET - MBA Purchase Index: Previous 165.4. This sub-index covers single-family home purchase mortgage applications.
- 7:00 AM ET - MBA Refinance Index: Previous 1,269.7. The refinancing gauge tracks applications to refinance existing mortgages.
- 7:00 AM ET - MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate: Previous 6.21%. This reports the prevailing fixed 30-year mortgage lending rate in the MBA sample.
- 8:30 AM ET - Average Weekly Hours (Jan): Expected 34.2; previous 34.2. This measures the average hours worked per week by nonfarm employees.
- 8:30 AM ET - Manufacturing Payrolls (Jan): Expected -5K; previous -8K. This series indicates employment shifts within the manufacturing sector.
- 8:30 AM ET - Government Payrolls (Jan): Previous 13.0K. This reports employment changes within government roles.
- 8:30 AM ET - U6 Unemployment Rate (Jan): Previous 8.4%. The broader U6 measure includes marginally attached workers and those employed part-time for economic reasons.
- 8:30 AM ET - Payrolls Benchmark (Jan): Previous -589.00. This is a revisionary adjustment to prior employment estimates.
- 10:00 AM ET - Fed Schmid Speaks: The Kansas City Fed President's remarks may shed light on economic conditions and policy considerations.
- 10:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Distillate Fuel Production: Previous -0.005M barrels.
- 10:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Heatoil Stock: Previous -0.160M barrels.
- 10:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Gasoline Production: Previous -0.565M barrels.
- 10:30 AM ET - EIA Refinery Crude Runs: Previous -0.180M barrels.
- 10:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates: Previous -0.4%.
- 10:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks: Previous -5.553M barrels.
- 10:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Crude Imports: Previous 1.101M barrels.
- 10:30 AM ET - Gasoline Inventories: Previous 0.685M barrels.
- 11:00 AM ET - Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI: Previous 53.81. This consumer sentiment index aggregates perceptions across several economic dimensions.
- 7:00 PM ET - Fed Logan Speaks: Comments from the Dallas Fed President may provide further perspective on monetary policy direction.
Why this trading day matters
Wednesday combines labor market data that typically drives rate-sensitive asset pricing with a comprehensive set of EIA energy statistics that inform commodity market balances. Added to those are multiple Fed speeches and a 10-year note auction, which together make for a full timetable of potential market-moving inputs. Participants will be watching how the employment figures align with expectations and how energy inventory flows compare with recent weekly changes already on record.
For further information and the latest updates, please refer to our Economic Calendar, here