Jefferies has moved BYD's A-shares to a Hold rating, saying the recent decline in the share price has largely absorbed prior negatives and that a sequence of upcoming events could help sentiment recover. The firm noted the stock has fallen about 40% from its peak.
Analysts led by Johnson Wan highlighted a set of potential positive drivers - including a Tech Day scheduled for late February or early March, plus a pipeline of new models and technologies - in a research note explaining the change in stance.
Jefferies expects BYD to undertake an intensive rollout of new models and technologies after Chinese New Year, likely in early March. The broker said that such launches could assist BYD in regaining market share in China, where the company’s share slid from 34% in 2024 to 27% in 2025.
Since December 2025, BYD has registered 11 new models on the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) website for 2026. Among those is the Datang D-segment SUV, which the note identifies as equipped with lidar, megawatt fast-charging capability and rear-wheel steering. Jefferies' analysts also pointed to model upgrades that include increased battery capacity and higher motor output on select vehicles, as well as larger battery packs on 2026 facelift plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).
On the international front, Jefferies expects exports to evolve into a meaningful profit driver for BYD. The carmaker reported overseas sales of 100,000 units in January 2026, a 51% year-on-year increase, with those exports representing 48% of the company’s total monthly sales volume.
Jefferies' forecast calls for BYD exports to reach 1.5 million units in 2026, an increase of 43% year-on-year. The broker views this expansion as a potential hedge against softer domestic demand amid subsidy cuts and rising competition. Jefferies identified Europe, Southeast Asia and South America as the principal export markets and noted BYD’s plans to introduce more hybrid vehicles along with additional models under the Denza and FCB brands.
"As BYD brings more competitive and affordable EV models to international markets, we see promising market share gains in overseas markets," the analysts wrote.
Looking at the company’s near-term profitability, Jefferies expects net profit per car to improve sequentially to roughly RMB6,500 from RMB6,200, driven by a richer product mix and a larger contribution from overseas sales.
Nevertheless, the broker flagged cost pressures. Despite rising material costs and a one-off rebate to dealers, Jefferies projects fourth-quarter net profit of about RMB9.7 billion - up 25% quarter-on-quarter but down 35% year-on-year.
Reflecting the still-challenged auto market as consumers adjust to reduced subsidies, Jefferies trimmed its fiscal 2025 earnings forecast to RMB33 billion and cut its fiscal 2026 estimate to RMB40 billion.
Valuation guidance from Jefferies sets a price target of RMB88 for BYD's A-shares and HK$105 for the H-shares, based on a 20x 2026 estimated price-to-earnings ratio. The brokerage noted that additional negative developments appear largely priced into the share valuation.
Note: This article focuses on Jefferies' published analysis and BYD's disclosed registrations, sales figures and company plans as cited in the broker's note.