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Stock Markets February 11, 2026

Jefferies Raises ArcelorMittal Rating and Price Target on Expected EU Import Tightening

Brokerage sees tariffs and quota cuts lifting European steel prices, output and ArcelorMittal earnings through 2027

By Nina Shah MT
Jefferies Raises ArcelorMittal Rating and Price Target on Expected EU Import Tightening
MT

Jefferies upgraded ArcelorMittal to Buy from Hold and increased its price target to €62 from €44, citing planned European trade measures that could materially curb low-cost imports. The brokerage projects higher utilization, stronger prices and elevated earnings across the cycle, forecasting substantial EBITDA gains for ArcelorMittal by 2027 while noting offsetting pressure from carbon costs and inflation.

Key Points

  • Jefferies upgraded ArcelorMittal to Buy and lifted its price target to €62 from €44, citing expected European trade measures that will curb low-cost imports.
  • Planned changes from July 2026 - a 50% cut in import quotas and doubled tariffs on excess volumes - are estimated to reduce imports by about 10 million tonnes and raise EU operating rates toward 80% to 85% from 60% to 65%.
  • Jefferies forecasts ArcelorMittal EBITDA of $11.7 billion by 2027 (approximately 15% above consensus), with European EBITDA rising to $5.7 billion by 2027 from about $2 billion in 2025; sectors likely affected include metals-intensive industries such as construction, automotive and broader manufacturing.

Jefferies has moved ArcelorMittal to a Buy rating from Hold and boosted its price objective to €62 from €44. The brokerage attributes the change to anticipated policy measures in Europe designed to reduce low-cost steel imports, which it says should support higher regional prices, increased production and improved profitability for domestic producers over the coming years.

Policy measures and production outlook

Jefferies highlights planned tariff adjustments scheduled from July 2026. Those measures include a 50% reduction in import quotas and a doubling of tariffs applied to volumes that exceed the new quota limits. The firm estimates these steps could lower imports by roughly 10 million tonnes and push EU steel operating rates toward the 80% to 85% range, up from an estimated 60% to 65% currently.

Earnings and price sensitivity

The brokerage expects that stronger utilization and firmer pricing will underpin earnings across the sector. Jefferies projects ArcelorMittal's EBITDA will reach $11.7 billion by 2027, which it notes is about 15% higher than a consensus figure of $10.1 billion. It has raised its 2026 EBITDA forecast by 10% to $8.9 billion and lifted its 2027 estimate by 23%, attributing much of the upside to improved performance in Europe.

Jefferies quantifies the sensitivity of profitability to European price and volume moves: it estimates each €50 per tonne increase in EU steel prices could add about $1.6 billion to EBITDA, while a 5% rise in volumes could contribute roughly $0.5 billion. The firm expects European EBITDA to increase to about $5.7 billion by 2027 from near $2 billion in 2025, driven by higher prices and shipments, although it cautions that some of the gains could be offset by rising carbon costs and inflation.

ArcelorMittal's position and capacity

Jefferies notes that ArcelorMittal is the largest steel producer in Europe with an estimated 35% to 40% market share. The brokerage believes reduced import volumes would create space for domestic output, allowing ArcelorMittal to utilize idle capacity that can reportedly be brought back online with limited capital expenditure. The company is also expanding with a new electric arc furnace scheduled to begin operations in 2026.

Shipments in Europe are forecast by Jefferies to rise from 28.4 million tonnes in 2025 to 30.3 million tonnes in 2027. The brokerage further sees hot rolled coil prices increasing to €730 to €740 per tonne in 2025, a level it describes as more than €125 above recent average levels.

Notable forecasts and comparative figures

  • Jefferies price target for ArcelorMittal: €62 (raised from €44).
  • Projected ArcelorMittal EBITDA: $11.7 billion by 2027 versus a consensus of $10.1 billion.
  • 2026 EBITDA forecast: $8.9 billion (up 10% from prior Jefferies estimate).
  • European EBITDA projection: $5.7 billion by 2027, up from roughly $2 billion in 2025.
  • Shipments in Europe: 28.4 million tonnes in 2025 rising to 30.3 million tonnes in 2027.
  • Hot rolled coil price range: €730 to €740 per tonne in 2025.

Risks

  • Some projected gains may be offset by rising carbon compliance costs and inflation, which could erode margins and reduce the net benefit to producers - this affects corporate profitability in the steel sector and associated manufacturing supply chains.
  • The expected policy measures are scheduled to begin in July 2026; any delay or change in implementation could alter the magnitude or timing of the projected import reductions and capacity utilization improvements, impacting earnings forecasts for European steelmakers.
  • Differences between Jefferies' forecasts and consensus estimates highlight forecast risk; actual EBITDA outcomes depend on realized prices, volumes and cost trends, creating model and execution uncertainty for investors and lenders.

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