Jefferies has upgraded ACS Actividades de Construccion y Servicios SA to a "buy" from "hold" and raised its price target to €116, saying the market currently underestimates the value embedded in the Spanish group's growing greenfield infrastructure portfolio.
In a note dated Monday, the brokerage estimated an implicit equity stub of about €4 billion at prevailing share prices. Jefferies argues that figure does not fully reflect value tied up in development-stage projects such as secured data-center capacity and the SR-400 express-lane scheme.
The upgrade follows a broad revision of Jefferies' valuation methodology. The firm said it now has stronger visibility on earnings and the timing of asset monetization across ACS' secured pipeline, which includes data centers, express lanes and energy-related investments. Under the updated approach, Jefferies applies a refreshed sum-of-the-parts framework that captures development upside more explicitly than prior models, which treated early-stage assets on a book-value basis.
Jefferies' €116 target incorporates explicit assumptions for ACS' data-center pipeline and the SR-400 project. The data-center portfolio is valued at roughly €3 million per megawatt, while the SR-400 express-lane project is assumed to be worth 5x equity when operational in 2033, with that value discounted back to 2026 in Jefferies' model. Other infrastructure stakes, including ACS' holding in Abertis, were kept at previously applied multiples.
The analysts pointed to ACS' role in global data-center construction - primarily executed through its Hochtief unit - as a central element of the investment case. Jefferies notes that demand from hyperscale operators represents about 60% of ACS' data-center revenue, a mix that has underpinned a substantial re-rating of the stock over the past year as spending on AI infrastructure has lifted data-center activity.
Jefferies highlights that capacity additions already planned offer visibility on cash-flow growth into the next decade. The firm notes ACS expects to invest €4.5 billion in greenfield projects by 2030 and that those investments have the potential to deliver a 3-4x valuation uplift at maturity, according to the brokerage's scenarios.
While Hochtief remains a material earnings contributor - in part due to Turner, its U.S. business - Jefferies kept a "hold" rating on Hochtief itself. The brokerage forecasts Turner to generate around €870 million in profits in 2026. Jefferies also observed that Hochtief shares have rerated sharply and now trade at about a 30% premium to peers such as AECOM and Jacobs, compared with a roughly 40% discount a year earlier.
On valuation, Jefferies described Hochtief as looking "full" at about 17x expected 2026 EBIT, which the firm says limits near-term upside despite strong hyperscaler spending and a surge in data-center projects. Jefferies estimates data-center work will account for roughly 40% of Turner sales in 2025.
By contrast, Jefferies contends ACS' broader platform still contains meaningful unpriced value. The brokerage expects ACS' enterprise value to grow roughly 13%-14% per year from 2026 through 2030, driven by milestones in data-center development, progress on the U.S. SR-400 express-lane project and growth across construction units.
Jefferies also projects ACS will deploy about €5 billion in equity investments by 2030, with those investments fully funded by organic cash flow under the firm's assumptions. The brokerage updated its financial estimates for ACS, placing 2026 sales at about €57.2 billion and EBITDA at €3.55 billion, both above consensus. Earnings per share are forecast to grow 24% in 2026 and 29% in 2027 under Jefferies' revised model.
Overall, Jefferies framed the reset as a function of clearer visibility over secured pipelines rather than a wholesale change in sentiment toward the sector. The brokerage highlighted the company's rapid expansion into data-center development and its stake in U.S. express-lane infrastructure as factors that support the view ACS remains undervalued relative to its growth outlook.
Takeaway - Jefferies' upgrade reflects a methodological shift to recognize the development and future monetization value of ACS' secured greenfield projects, with data centers and SR-400 driving much of the incremental implied value.