Jefferies has reclassified Novo Nordisk from Underperform to Hold, concluding that much of the near-term downside has now been recognised by the market. The broker pointed to notable reductions in consensus forecasts and a de-rating of the shares as the basis for its decision.
Analysts at Jefferies reported that consensus expectations for 2027 have been sharply reduced - with sales estimates cut by 20% and profit forecasts down by 30% - prompting the firm to neutralise its previously negative view. The bank also lifted its price target on Novo stock to 275 Danish crowns from 270 crowns.
Why Jefferies changed its stance
Jefferies said headline pricing headwinds have already shown up in results and that the market is now more attuned to margin pressures facing the company. Given those adjustments, the analysts see "more modest risk to numbers" than before.
At the same time, Jefferies cautioned that risks to 2027 earnings remain meaningful. The firm cited uncertainty over the trajectory of GLP-1 portfolio expansion, competitive dynamics and compounding - all factors that could exert further downward pressure on gross margins.
The U.S. oral Wegovy launch was identified as a potential source of near-term momentum, but Jefferies urged caution. The analysts recommended focusing on total U.S. GLP-1 prescription volumes instead of looking solely at the oral product's performance.
"After 20% cuts to 2027E Sales since our Pharma launch in Oct 2025, we feel cons now adequately reflect pressures impacting the near-term top-line growth trajectory," the Jefferies team led by Michael Leuchten wrote.
For 2026, the bank described management guidance as conservative, particularly with regard to oral Wegovy uptake and Medicare obesity contributions. Jefferies' own estimates sit broadly in line with consensus and towards the upper end of management's guidance range.
Competition and catalysts to watch
Jefferies warned that portfolio growth could disappoint and that the oral Wegovy launch might be "more cannibalistic than widely believed." The arrival of Lilly's orfoglipron in April was flagged as another potential decelerator of growth.
The broker also pointed to upcoming clinical and competitive catalysts, including the REDEFINE-4 head-to-head trial versus Lilly's Zepbound. In its base case Jefferies assumes non-inferiority for CagriSema, but it noted that superiority appears unlikely even though market expectations may imply some upside skew.
Overall, Jefferies' move to Hold reflects the view that recent consensus cuts and the stock's de-rating have removed a portion of the immediate downside, while leaving open significant medium-term uncertainties tied to margin trends, competitive entries and product mix dynamics.