Jefferies reduced its recommendation on InPost S.A. to "hold" from "buy" on Friday and lowered its price objective to €15.60 from €17. The bank tied its new target to a recently announced recommended cash offer and cited the companys fourth-quarter results and an aggressive investment plan that will depress margins through 2026.
The price target mirrors the €15.60-per-share bid unveiled on Feb. 9 by a consortium of shareholders that includes Advent, FedEx, A&R Investments and PPF Group. Jefferies noted the bid represents a 50% premium to InPosts undisturbed price on Jan. 2 and sits 2% below the companys 2021 IPO price of €16. The bank said a counteroffer appears unlikely and therefore aligned its valuation with the offer price.
Market performance has been uneven. InPost shares are up 44% year-to-date, outperforming the EuroStoxx index, which has returned -1% over the same period, yet the stock has declined 38% over fiscal year 2025.
Operationally, the company reported Q4 adjusted EBITDA of PLN 1.10 billion, a 4% decline year-on-year and roughly 9% below consensus and implied guidance. The shortfall was concentrated in the UK business, where the company recorded a loss of PLN 99.3 million in the quarter versus a PLN 100.1 million profit in the prior-year period. Management attributed the UK weakness to elevated costs incurred to preserve Yodels service quality during the peak season, despite a substantial 240% rise in volumes.
By contrast, Poland delivered stronger results. Polish operations generated PLN 1.03 billion of EBITDA in the quarter, up 16% year-on-year, with an EBITDA margin of 49.5% - an increase of 165 basis points - supported by 12% revenue growth and 5% growth in volumes. On a full-year basis, group EBITDA rose 12% to PLN 4,098.6 million on revenues of PLN 14,711.2 million.
Looking ahead to fiscal 2026, InPost guided to flat group EBITDA. The company expects a lower mid-40s EBITDA margin in Poland, roughly 4 percentage points below the prior level, as it prioritizes investments in pricing, volume growth and the rollout of a new AI shopping assistant integrated into the InPost app.
The company also plans a sizeable expansion of its automated parcel machine (APM) network, adding 20,000 units - a 33% increase to its installed base. The expansion is allocated across regions as follows: Poland +11%, the Eurozone +62% and the UK +36%. This network growth will push capital expenditure up 33% to PLN 2.4 billion.
Jefferies adjusted its forecasts to reflect the weaker results and the heavier investment profile. The bank cut its FY26 EBITDA estimate by 16% to PLN 4.29 billion from a prior estimate of PLN 5.13 billion, and now expects free cash flow to be broadly neutral at PLN 18.2 million. FY27 and FY28 EBITDA estimates were both trimmed by 17%, to PLN 5.16 billion and PLN 6.30 billion respectively. The UK division faced the steepest downgrade, with Jefferies lowering its FY26 EBITDA forecast by 60% to PLN 223 million.
Under the terms of the proposed transaction, Advent would lift its stake to 37% from 6.5%, FedEx would hold 37%, A&R Investments would increase to 17% from 12.49%, and PPF Group would reduce to 10% from 28.75%. The offer values InPost at 10x FY26E EV/EBITDA, representing a 23% discount to its historical valuation. The offer memorandum is expected by the end of Q2 2026, with closing targeted in the second half of the year.
Analyst perspective
The combination of a near-term investment push, regionally divergent performance and a recommended bid has compressed optionality for public-market investors. The guidance for flat EBITDA in FY26 and the step-up in capex underline a capital-intensive phase that will weigh on margin expansion in the near term. Jefferies forecast cuts and the alignment of its price target with the bid crystallize the markets near-term valuation framework for the company.
What to watch next
- Finalisation of the offer memorandum by end-Q2 2026 and subsequent closing activity slated for H2 of the year.
- Execution of the APM expansion plan and whether the increment in capex and network density delivers the expected volume and revenue gains without further margin erosion.
- UK operational performance and cost trends, particularly service-quality investments tied to Yodel during peak periods.