Jefferies raised its rating on Nordic Semiconductor ASA to "hold" from "underperform" in a note dated Friday, reflecting what the broker described as eased timing risk for the companys next-generation nRF54 platform and improving demand indicators. Shares of the company traded higher following the note, rising 13.3% at 06:52 ET (11:52 GMT).
The brokerage pointed to customer behaviour in the fourth quarter as a key factor behind the reassessment. According to Jefferies, Nordics customers moved more product than expected during Q4, which prompted orders to be pulled forward into the first quarter of 2026 amid fears of component and memory shortages.
Nordics own guidance underpinned the view that near-term top-line risks have lessened. The company set first-quarter revenue guidance at a $185 million midpoint, a level Jefferies noted implies roughly 9% sequential growth from the fourth quarter. That rise stands in contrast to typical seasonality, which the brokerage said normally produces mid- to high-single-digit percentage declines between the fourth and first quarters.
That combination of customer pull-forward dynamics and an above-seasonal revenue outlook led Jefferies to revisit its earlier underperform stance, which had been based on expectations of a normalization in demand at Nordics largest customers after inventory corrections. The firm said current order patterns and broader macro inventory trends make a near-term normalization in the first half of 2026 unlikely.
On the back of these developments, Jefferies raised its 2026 revenue growth forecast to 18% from 13%, and said it does not expect downward pressure on 2026 growth estimates in the near term. The firm also noted that concerns about the timing of nRF54-related revenues were central to its prior caution. While the nRF54 family may still see revenues or design wins materialize later in the year, Jefferies said the strength of first-quarter orders supports the companys top line even if nRF54 contributions arrive on a delayed cadence.
Certification activity provided additional context for Jefferies view on nRF54 adoption. The brokerage observed that the nRF54 represented about 15% of new certifications in the fourth quarter of 2025, up from less than 10% in the third quarter, a pattern Jefferies described as gradual adoption. Nordic's management has indicated that the nRF54 series is expected to contribute meaningfully from 2026 onward.
Though Jefferies raised its revenue assumptions, the firm cautioned that operating expense uncertainty remains a key variable. Nordic guided first-quarter operating expenses to be in line with the fourth quarter, but the company has not provided a clear trajectory for operating costs across the remainder of 2026. In response, Jefferies increased its operating expense assumptions to reflect the higher sales base, planned reinvestment into adjacent technologies, and foreign exchange impacts on payroll.
Even with higher expense assumptions, Jefferies raised its 2026 EBITDA forecast by 10% to $108 million, attributing the increase to stronger revenue rather than cost improvements. The upgrade was paired with a higher price target of NOK141, up from NOK101, which the brokerage noted implies about 7% upside from the prior closing price of NOK131.50.
Jefferies said the revised target incorporates a higher 2027 EBITDA estimate of $149 million and assumes an exit multiple of 17.5 times EV/EBITDA. The firm concluded that while the near-term revenue outlook has improved materially, operating expense risk will be an important factor to monitor throughout 2026.
Context for markets and sectors
The combination of pulled-forward customer orders and stronger early-2026 guidance has immediate relevance for semiconductor equipment and component suppliers tied to Nordics ecosystem, as well as for investors tracking wireless connectivity chip vendors. For market participants focused on revenue and margin cycles, the revision to growth and EBITDA forecasts informs expectations for profitability and valuation in the year ahead.
Bottom line
Jefferies upgrade of Nordic Semiconductor to hold reflects a reassessment of timing risks around nRF54 and an appreciation of faster-than-expected order flows into early 2026. The broker elevated revenue and EBITDA forecasts and raised its price target, but flagged operating expense direction as a continuing uncertainty that could influence outcomes through the rest of the year.