Jefferies analysts have identified Mondi, SCA and Stora Enso as potential beneficiaries in the European containerboard market following recent price moves and rising energy-driven costs.
According to the investment firm, recycled containerboard prices in Germany increased by €40 per ton, equivalent to about 6%, month-over-month in March. Separate announcements have been made for further energy-driven price increases of €100 per ton. The March uptick follows a period of cumulative declines totaling €112.50 per ton, or roughly 15%, from July through January.
Virgin containerboard prices were unchanged month-over-month in the latest data, though Jefferies notes that virgin prices typically track recycled containerboard with a lag. In line with this pattern, SCA has declared a €100 per ton price increase, equal to about 12%, set to take effect in April.
Market inputs also shifted. Waste paper prices steadied in the first quarter of 2026, rising €2 per ton month-over-month to €115 per ton, down from a June peak of €189 per ton, the firm reported.
Jefferies said many investors were initially skeptical about the €100 per ton increase announced for February and March, particularly before energy costs rose, citing perceptions that the increase had failed amid European overcapacity and operating rates around 84%. The firm described the achievement of a €40 per ton, or 6%, gain in recycled containerboard as a positive development for European containerboard producers and box makers.
Higher energy costs linked to the conflict in the Middle East have lifted the cost curve by an estimated €30 to €50 per ton, Jefferies added. Major industry players have responded: Smurfit Westrock, identified as the market leader with a 13% share, and SAICA, the number two player with a 10% share, have both announced additional price hikes of €100 per ton, representing roughly 15% increases.
On balance, Jefferies ranks virgin European containerboard producers Mondi, SCA and Stora Enso as favored names, and sees large integrated box makers such as Smurfit Westrock as secondary beneficiaries from the recent pricing developments and energy-related cost pressure.
Context note - The analysis above reflects Jefferies' view as reported and summarizes the latest disclosed price moves and market indicators.