Correction: This account updates the opening to replace a prior reference to 2026 total sales with the company’s Opzelura forecast and clarifies that the 2026 sales guidance is for net product revenue, excluding royalties and milestone and contract revenue.
Feb 10 - Incyte said on Tuesday that it expects Opzelura annual sales in 2026 to fall below consensus estimates, a projection that increased market scrutiny of the drugmaker as Jakafi - its leading product - approaches a patent cliff. Shares of the Wilmington, Delaware-based firm fell more than 4% in premarket trading following the announcement.
Guidance details
The company provided guidance for 2026 net product revenue in the range of $4.77 billion to $4.94 billion, excluding royalties and milestone and contract revenue. By contrast, analysts on average projected total annual sales of $5.52 billion, according to LSEG data.
Central to investor concern is Opzelura, the topical therapy for certain skin disorders that Incyte is counting on to underpin future growth as Jakafi’s exclusivity faces pressure. Incyte now expects Opzelura to bring in $750 million to $790 million in revenue in 2026, under the $801.5 million that analysts had been modeling.
The conservative 2026 outlook for Opzelura comes despite a strong fourth quarter for the product. Opzelura revenue rose 28% year-over-year to $207.3 million in the quarter, topping the $195.6 million analysts had forecast.
BMO analyst Evan Seigerman commented that the "softer guide for Opzelura leaves work to be done in 2026," highlighting investor attention on whether newer growth drivers can offset revenue erosion after Jakafi’s patent expiration.
Opzelura is approved for vitiligo and for atopic dermatitis in patients aged 12 and older. Incyte said it expects a regulatory decision in the second half of this year that would support an ex-U.S. launch for Opzelura in moderate atopic dermatitis in late 2026.
Jakafi performance
Jakafi, Incyte’s flagship therapy for blood cancers including myelofibrosis and polycythemia vera, remains the company’s largest revenue source. For 2026, Incyte forecast Jakafi sales between $3.22 billion and $3.27 billion, above the $3.09 billion average analyst estimate.
In the fourth quarter, Jakafi revenue climbed 7% to $828.2 million, beating consensus estimates for the period.
Quarterly results
On an adjusted basis, Incyte reported earnings of $1.80 per share for the quarter ended December 31, below the analyst consensus of $1.93. Total revenue for the quarter was $1.51 billion, ahead of the $1.35 billion estimate, with the top-line aided by $100 million in milestone payments.
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Implications for markets and sectors
The guidance and quarterly results affect investors focused on pharmaceuticals and healthcare equities, particularly those tracking companies with large single-product revenue exposures and upcoming patent expirations. Equity traders and portfolio managers will weigh the interplay of Opzelura’s growth trajectory and Jakafi’s hold on recurring revenue as they reassess valuations.