Incyte said on Tuesday it expects full-year 2026 revenue between $4.77 billion and $4.94 billion, a range that falls noticeably short of the Wall Street consensus of $5.52 billion, according to LSEG data. The announcement came alongside guidance for its dermatology franchise and updated projections for Jakafi, the company’s long-standing oncology franchise.
The Wilmington, Delaware-based drugmaker also forecast 2026 revenue from Opzelura - the topical treatment for skin disorders that Incyte is counting on for future growth - in a $750 million to $790 million range, undercutting the analyst estimate of $801.5 million. The cautious tone on Opzelura contributed to investor concern about the company’s ability to replace revenue as Jakafi approaches patent expiry in 2028. Shares of the company fell more than 4% in premarket trading.
Despite the subdued guidance for Opzelura, the product delivered a robust fourth-quarter performance, with sales rising 28% to $207.3 million and beating expectations of $195.6 million. Still, the company’s forward-looking numbers for 2026 imply moderated momentum for the drug relative to analyst assumptions.
Jakafi remains Incyte’s largest revenue generator. The company projected 2026 Jakafi sales between $3.22 billion and $3.27 billion, a forecast above the $3.09 billion analysts had expected. Fourth-quarter Jakafi sales increased 7% to $828.2 million, topping estimates.
On an adjusted basis, Incyte reported earnings of $1.80 per share for the quarter ended December 31, below the $1.93 per share analysts had forecast. Total revenue for the quarter was $1.51 billion, ahead of the $1.35 billion consensus, helped by $100 million in milestone payments that boosted the top line.
Market watchers and analysts flagged the softer Opzelura outlook as a sign that more work will be required to close the revenue gap that could open when Jakafi loses patent protection. BMO analyst Evan Seigerman said the "softer guide for Opzelura leaves work to be done in 2026," noting investor focus on whether growth products can fill the shortfall after Jakafi’s patent expiration.
Opzelura is approved for vitiligo and for atopic dermatitis in patients aged 12 and older. Incyte also said it expects a regulatory decision in the second half of this year tied to an anticipated ex-U.S. launch in moderate atopic dermatitis in late 2026.
Summary
Incyte’s 2026 revenue guidance came in below analyst expectations largely because of a restrained outlook for Opzelura, even as Jakafi sales forecasts exceeded estimates. Quarterly results showed higher-than-expected revenue aided by milestone payments, but adjusted earnings per share missed forecasts.
Key points
- Incyte forecasts 2026 revenue of $4.77 billion to $4.94 billion, below the $5.52 billion consensus - impacting investor sentiment in the biotech sector.
- Opzelura 2026 revenue guidance of $750 million to $790 million is lower than analysts' $801.5 million estimate, raising questions about dermatology franchise trajectory.
- Jakafi remains the primary revenue driver with 2026 sales expected at $3.22 billion to $3.27 billion, above the $3.09 billion estimate, but the product faces patent expiry in 2028.
Risks and uncertainties
- Opzelura may not scale as quickly as analysts anticipated - this directly affects Incyte’s ability to offset future Jakafi revenue declines and has implications for biotech investors and pharmaceutical supply chains.
- Jakafi’s impending patent expiration in 2028 poses a material revenue risk if replacement products or indications do not fully compensate for lost exclusivity - a risk for oncology and specialty drug markets.
- Adjusted earnings per share of $1.80 fell short of the $1.93 estimate, signaling potential near-term profitability pressure despite stronger total revenue driven in part by $100 million in milestone payments - a factor for equity and credit markets evaluating the company.