Stock Markets February 13, 2026

Hermes Tops Q4 Revenue Forecast as US and Japan Drive Strength; China Shows Early Uptick

High-end leather goods and a steady pricing strategy help the group outperform peers while valuation and Chinese demand remain watchpoints

By Jordan Park CFR
Hermes Tops Q4 Revenue Forecast as US and Japan Drive Strength; China Shows Early Uptick
CFR

Hermes reported fourth-quarter revenue that exceeded expectations, supported by robust sales in the United States and Japan and continued strength in its leather division. The group's planned price increases for 2026 are set lower than last year due to currency effects, and management said it is observing positive signs in China. Hermes delivered a strong full-year operating profit and announced an 18 euro per share dividend, while its shares rose following the results.

Key Points

  • Hermes exceeded fourth-quarter revenue expectations, led by strong sales in the United States and Japan; overall Q4 sales rose 9.8% on a currency-adjusted basis versus an 8.4% Visible Alpha consensus.
  • Management plans price increases of about 5-6% for 2026, down from 6-7% in 2025, citing currency effects; the leather division grew organically by 14.6% and the full-year operating profit was 6.57 billion euros with a 41% margin.
  • Hermes is trading at a high valuation - 45 times forward earnings per LSEG data - and while management sees positive signs in China, some analysts warn the stock's premium could be a vulnerability.

Hermes posted fourth-quarter revenue growth that came in ahead of consensus, driven primarily by stronger-than-expected trading in the United States and Japan. The results underscore the company's resilience in a luxury market that has produced mixed outcomes for several rivals.

Chief Executive Officer Axel Dumas said the company is entering 2026 with "confidence," and confirmed a slower pace of price increases for the year. Management expects price rises of roughly 5-6% in 2026, down from a 6-7% pace in 2025, attributing the moderation chiefly to currency movements.

Following the publication of the quarterly figures, Hermes shares rose and were trading about 3% higher at 1515 GMT.


Drivers of the quarter

Sales of Hermes' signature product categories - including Birkin and Kelly bags, silk scarves and perfume - expanded by 9.8% in the fourth quarter on a currency-adjusted basis. That rate topped an analyst consensus of 8.4% growth compiled by Visible Alpha.

Regional performance varied, with the Americas - largely reflecting the United States - recording a 12.1% increase in sales, above expectations of around 9%. Asia excluding Japan, a region where China is the major influence, rose 8%.

The company's leather division, which contributes the bulk of Hermes' profits, posted organic revenue growth of 14.6%.


Profitability, capital returns and valuation

For the full year Hermes delivered an operating profit of 6.57 billion euros and reported a profit margin of 41%, marginally ahead of a 40% margin estimate. The company said it will distribute a dividend of 18 euros per share.

Hermes remains a high-valuation outlier in luxury: trading at 45 times forward earnings according to LSEG data, almost double the forward multiple of larger peers such as LVMH and Richemont. Some analysts caution this premium could leave the stock vulnerable to pressure despite the company's recent outperformance.


Market context and competitor behaviour

Analysts noted that Hermes' ability to implement price increases on its ultra-luxury assortment has been a material contributor to its performance and investor appeal. Chiara Battistini, a luxury equity analyst at J.P. Morgan, said the price rises the company has been able to enact on its high-end items are a key factor for the business and for investor interest.

By contrast, many peers have slowed or halted price hikes in response to weakening sales. Executives at other groups have acknowledged that the price increases implemented after the pandemic - described by Kering's CEO as a "price hike 'bonanza'" - were among the contributors to recent revenue declines at those companies.


China and broader demand signals

Dumas said in a call with analysts that he is seeing positive signs in China, a market that has experienced a marked slowdown in recent years linked to the country's property downturn. He said: "I do not see the situation deteriorating." He added: "There are positive moves, in particular the way they (China) are managing the property crisis."

The company also highlighted a sizable order backlog and a client base skewed toward ultra-wealthy consumers, factors that have helped it withstand a broader luxury slowdown better than some rivals.


Corporate scale and workforce

Hermes, which remains family-controlled, employs roughly 25,000 people worldwide. By market capitalisation it is France's second-largest listed company, behind LVMH, whose annual sales are reported to be more than four times those of Hermes.


Promotional note included in original release

Embedded in the original release was a promotional section referencing ProPicks AI and the ticker CFR, which questioned whether CFR should be bought now and described the tool's approach to evaluating stocks. The promotional text listed past winners and invited readers to explore ProPicks AI strategies. That content appeared alongside the corporate results in the original material shared for this report.

Risks

  • Valuation pressure - Hermes' forward earnings multiple of 45, almost double some peers, could leave the stock exposed to market repricing, impacting equity investors and luxury sector valuations.
  • Geographic demand uncertainty - While management reports positive moves in China, the market has been subdued in recent years due to the country's property downturn; luxury retailers and the consumer discretionary sector remain sensitive to Chinese economic developments.
  • Pricing dynamics among competitors - Many luxury rivals have slowed or stopped price increases amid declining sales; further competitive pricing shifts could affect industry margins and investor sentiment in the luxury goods sector.

More from Stock Markets

Moscow Market Closes Flat as Select Large-Caps Offset Losses Feb 21, 2026 Honeywell Reconsiders Purchase of Johnson Matthey Catalyst Unit as Closing Obstacles Emerge Feb 21, 2026 Indigenous Occupation Halts Operations at Cargill’s Santarem Terminal Feb 21, 2026 Market Turbulence Reinforces Case for Broader Diversification Feb 21, 2026 NYSE Holdings UK Ltd launches unified trading platform to streamline market access Feb 21, 2026