Hemnet Group AB shares rose more than 4% on Friday after Citi Research reported that the company’s recently introduced "Sell First Pay Later" (SFPL) payment option has seen encouraging early demand, even as the broker lowered its 12-month price target from SKr180 to SKr123.
Citi highlighted February uptake concentrated in Stockholm, where 1,715 new SFPL listings appeared in the product’s debut month. That figure represented 45% of all new Stockholm listings during February.
On a national basis, SFPL made up 5% of the 7,400 paid listings recorded in February, out of a total of 8,700 published listings. Citi described that level of take-up as "reassuring" but indicated it would await additional delivery of the product before embedding higher volumes into its modelling.
The SFPL option permits sellers to publish listings on Hemnet and defer payment until the property sells. Pricing for SFPL carries a 15% premium versus a direct listing and about a 7-8% premium compared with the existing option to pay only when a listing is removed.
Citi expects SFPL’s steady-state share of listings to settle around 25%, noting that sellers with a strong intent to sell are likely to continue using less expensive, existing payment options. At a 25% penetration level, Citi calculated that more than 4,000 additional listings would be required to counterbalance the shift in revenue recognition from published to paid listings.
Alongside the product update, Citi retained a "neutral" rating on Hemnet but significantly revised its valuation framework. The brokerage moved away from a pure discounted cash flow (DCF) model to a blended approach - 70% based on peer multiples and 30% DCF - reflecting a sector-wide derating of 56% versus the three-year average attributed to perceived AI disruption risks.
Using peer multiples from comparable firms AUTO, RMV and G24, Citi’s multiple-based component implies SEK102, derived from a 13.7x estimated 2027 price-to-earnings ratio. The DCF leg implies SEK174, calculated with a 7.4% weighted average cost of capital and a 3.5% long-term growth rate.
At market close on March 4, the stock price was SKr116, leaving a total expected return of 7.7% versus Citi’s updated SKr123 target. Citi also set illustrative bear and bull cases at SKr90 and SKr220 respectively.
Following Hemnet’s fourth-quarter beat, Citi nudged up its 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA estimates by about 1-2%, while trimming projections for the later years. Net sales forecasts are SKr1.75 billion in 2026, SKr2 billion in 2027 and SKr2.12 billion in 2028, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 50% in 2026. Diluted EPS was lifted to SKr7.69 for 2026 from a prior SKr7.42, with SKr8.73 and SKr9.18 pencilled in for 2027 and 2028 respectively.
Citi also noted strategic partnerships that provide brand owners with up to 5% of seller revenues net of agent compensation could reduce 2026 margins by roughly one percentage point, assuming an associated commission cost of SKr14 million.
Separately, the article included a description of an AI-driven stock-screening product, ProPicks AI, which evaluates Hemnet alongside thousands of companies using more than 100 financial metrics and highlighted past winners such as Super Micro Computer (+185%) and AppLovin (+157%). The piece mentioned that the AI identifies stocks offering appealing risk-reward profiles based on current data.
Where the market impact sits
The developments touch the online property listings market, fintech-enabled seller payment mechanisms, and equity valuation approaches within the sector, as reflected in Citi’s methodological shift and earnings revisions.