Shares of Grail Inc. (NASDAQ:GRAL) rose 6.2% on Wednesday after TD Cowen moved its rating on the company from Hold to Buy and set a new price target of $65.00, reduced from the prior $114.00 target.
The upgrade follows a significant clinical setback for Grail in its pivotal NHS Galleri study, which failed to achieve its primary endpoint and led to a roughly 60% decline in the stock earlier. Despite that outcome, TD Cowen analyst Dan Brennan outlined a constructive view of the broader multi-cancer early detection (MCED) market.
In firm research cited around the upgrade, TD Cowen valued the MCED opportunity at $70 billion. As Brennan commented: "We’re constructive on the Multi-Cancer Early Detection Market (MCED), whose TAM we sized at $70B in our detailed recent coverage initiation," adding: "We believe MCED testing will represent a paradigm shift in cancer and enable millions of individuals to have the potential to catch previously unscreened cancers earlier, extending life."
Brennan acknowledged that some market participants deem the NHS Galleri trial a clear failure. However, he said diligence conversations with key opinion leaders since the results were released have painted a more optimistic picture for Grail’s regulatory pathway and commercial prospects.
TD Cowen reported that feedback from those key opinion leaders supports the case for potential FDA approval. The analyst also estimated the probability of Medicare approval at approximately 50% and noted an upward bias to that probability assessment.
The firm’s revised $65 price target was highlighted as implying roughly 37% upside from Grail’s $47 closing share price immediately prior to Wednesday’s trading session.
Market context: The stock reaction reflects investor reassessment after the trial miss and TD Cowen’s updated view, balancing the clinical disappointment against the size of the addressable market and supportive expert feedback.
What remains uncertain: The company’s recent trial results and the timing and likelihood of regulatory and reimbursement approvals continue to be material variables for Grail’s valuation and commercial potential.