Goldman Sachs has adjusted its sector models for European oil and gas companies to reflect a stronger commodity-price environment, the bank said in a new research note. The move follows a recent surge in energy markets, with Brent crude trading close to $100 per barrel and the European gas benchmark TTF around 50 per megawatt-hour (MWh).
In its updated assumptions, Goldman now projects Brent crude at $85 per barrel in 2026 and $74 per barrel in 2027, up from prior estimates of $76 and $69 for those years. For natural gas, the bank raised its TTF-related assumptions to $15.6 per thousand cubic feet of natural gas (mcf) in 2026 and $12.4 per mcf in 2027.
Those stronger commodity forecasts have translated into higher earnings expectations for the sector. Goldman reported that its 2026 and 2027 earnings-per-share (EPS) estimates for European integrated oil companies and exploration and production (E&P) firms increased by an average of 17% and 11%, respectively. "As a result, our 2026/27 EPS estimates move up by 17%/11% on average, placing us 54%/24% above LSEG consensus on 2026E/27E," the analysts led by Michele Della Vigna wrote.
Goldman highlighted the notable upside in its forecasts for specific names. BP stood out in the bank's analysis, with a 2026 earnings forecast roughly 82% above consensus estimates, even as the stock itself has only moved modestly since the Middle East conflict escalated.
The bank's analysts also said that if current commodity price levels persist, 2026 could resemble the profit environment seen during the 2022 energy crisis, underscoring expectations for elevated sector profitability.
Reflecting the improved earnings outlook, Goldman increased multiple 12-month price targets across its European coverage. Notable revisions included:
- OMV: target raised to 48 from 45
- Equinor: target raised to NKr 260 from NKr 240
- TotalEnergies: target raised to 75 from 68
- Repsol: target raised to 24 from 22
- ENI: target raised to 23 from 21
- Shell: target raised to 44 from 42
- BP: target raised to 590 pence from 540 pence
The note also said Goldman lifted targets for several European E&P companies, naming Harbour Energy, Aker BP, Var Energi and Ithaca Energy among those with higher price objectives.
While the revisions are driven by stronger commodity prices and the consequent improvement in earnings forecasts, the analysts noted they applied somewhat lower valuation multiples in some cases. That adjustment was intended to reflect "elevated geopolitical risk and increased commodity volatility for the group," according to the research note.
Goldman's changes illustrate how rapid shifts in commodity markets can feed through to broker forecasts for both earnings and share-price targets. For investors and market participants focused on European oil and gas equity performance, the bank's updated projections underline stronger near-term profitability expectations, tempered by acknowledged geopolitical and volatility risks.