Financial markets appear to be re-prioritizing businesses with substantial physical capital and durable economic roles, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs. In a research note, the team described this group of companies as "heavy assets, low obsolescence," or HALO for short.
Goldman identified a range of examples that fit the HALO characterization: grids, pipelines, utilities, transport infrastructure, critical machinery and long-cycle industrial capacity. These are assets that the bank says are costly to replicate and less vulnerable to rapid technological replacement.
The analysts highlighted a measurable market response to this profile. They reported that "asset intensity" has emerged as a key driver of both valuations and returns and noted that Goldman's basket of capital-intensive HALO stocks has outperformed capital-light names by 35% since 2025.
Goldman attributed the reorientation in part to macro and geopolitical trends. Higher real yields, geopolitical fragmentation and the rewiring of supply chains have pushed equity leadership back toward tangible productive assets, the analysts wrote. According to the note, markets are rewarding capacity, networks, infrastructure and engineering complexity - attributes that support economic resilience and are expensive to duplicate.
The research team also linked the rise of new AI models to this market movement. They argued that the emergence of those models has put margin pressure on some mega-cap companies that have committed substantial spending to adopt the nascent technology. In addition, Goldman warned of disruption risk to software and IT services firms, which historically were part of the capital-light cohort that benefited from the digital and smartphone-driven expansion.
While capital-light businesses experienced rapid growth in the decade following the global financial crisis, Goldman noted that capital costs for those companies have increased. The analysts cited a combination of supply-chain constraints, the conflict in Ukraine and a structural rethink of globalization as drivers of higher capital costs. These developments, the note said, have restored the importance of economic resilience to investors.
The analysts emphasized that certain capabilities have moved from the periphery to the strategic core. Energy systems, supply chains, infrastructure and national security capabilities are now being treated as strategic and scarce, and consequently are increasingly priced as such. Goldman concluded that this shift has materially narrowed the valuation gap between capital-intensive and capital-light businesses.
What this means for markets
- Investors are placing greater value on businesses with entrenched physical networks and long-lived productive assets.
- Higher real yields and geopolitical shifts are cited as structural drivers favoring capital-intensive sectors.
- The rollout of new AI models is creating margin pressure and disruption risk among previously advantaged capital-light firms.
Sectors highlighted
- Infrastructure and utilities
- Energy and long-cycle industrials
- Transport and critical machinery
- Software and IT services as potential areas of disruption