Goldman Sachs said in a research note that it is raising earnings estimates and price targets broadly across the less-than-truckload (LTL) and truckload sectors, extending its bullish modeling through 2028 and boosting its upside, or "blue sky," scenarios should the recovery in freight prove stronger than anticipated.
The bank noted that trucking stocks have already moved significantly higher, with LTL and truckload shares averaging roughly a 70% gain since Goldman upgraded the sector in June 2025 and a 46% advance so far year-to-date. Despite that run-up, the firm said the combination of early cycle momentum and the onset of an earnings upgrade cycle supports continued relative participation in the group.
Goldman highlighted that several LTL carriers provided mid-quarter updates indicating second-quarter shipment volumes and, in select cases, pricing metrics that exceeded prior company and street expectations. Although overall shipments remain below year-ago levels, the pace of decline is moderating faster than Goldman had anticipated.
The research note also flagged indications of a possible volume inflection later in the year, a view supported by improving manufacturing indicators and advantageous, fuel-related profit dynamics for carriers.
On the truckload side, Goldman said spot-market rates are outperforming forecasts. Excluding fuel, the bank reported that second-quarter spot rates are averaging about 30% higher year-over-year, with more recent gains in pricing surpassing 40% in some measures.
Contract pricing is also showing signs of improvement, Goldman added, with carriers signaling that renewal rates could rise by high-single-digit to potentially low-double-digit percentages. In response to these developments, the bank raised its revenue-per-mile and profit projections for the second half of 2026 and subsequent periods.
Goldman’s moves reflect an adjustment of both base-case forecasts and more optimistic recovery scenarios, while acknowledging the significant appreciation already priced into many trucking stocks. The firm’s updated outlook therefore combines a recognition of recent market strength with expectations that improving demand and stronger pricing will support continued earnings revisions across the sector.
Context and implications
- Goldman increased multi-year forecasts and upside scenarios for LTL and truckload companies through 2028.
- Recent carrier updates show second-quarter volumes and pricing running ahead of prior forecasts, with shipment declines easing year-over-year.
- Spot truckload rates excluding fuel are averaging around 30% higher year-over-year in Q2, with later pricing gains above 40%.
- Contract renewals may produce high-single-digit to low-double-digit rate increases, prompting higher revenue-per-mile and profit estimates for H2 2026 and beyond.