Gap Inc., the parent of Old Navy, updated investors with a subdued profit outlook on Thursday, saying annual adjusted earnings are likely to come in below the average analyst forecast as tariffs and changing consumer priorities weigh on results.
The company estimates a roughly 200 basis point drag on current-quarter gross margins stemming from U.S. import duties. According to its 2024 annual report, about 46% of Gap's merchandise is sourced from Southeast Asian nations such as Vietnam and Indonesia, which were subject to the tariffs last year.
Tariffs have emerged as a material headwind for apparel margins and planning across the sector. Gap noted that the recent Supreme Court decision to strike down some of the tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump has added further uncertainty to its operating outlook.
For fiscal 2026, Gap projected adjusted earnings in a range of approximately $2.20 to $2.35 per share, a band that sits largely under the $2.32 per share average estimate compiled by LSEG. The company also gave a sales outlook it described as modest growth, forecasting net sales will rise between 2% and 3% for the year - a midpoint roughly aligned with the consensus estimate of a 2.45% increase.
During the holiday quarter, Gap's comparable-store sales increased by 3%, but this gain fell short of the 3.08% rise analysts had expected. The retailer said consumers, particularly those in lower-income households, increasingly sought discounts and deferred non-essential purchases, tempering demand for discretionary apparel.
Gap has responded with heavier investment in advertising intended to draw shoppers into stores and online. The company said it expects capital expenditures for the full fiscal year to total about $650 million, up from $470 million reported in 2025.
Rivals in the apparel and footwear space, including American Eagle, Abercrombie & Fitch and shoemaker Steve Madden, have also cited tariff-related pressures.
Gap's guidance and commentary highlight the twin operational pressures of trade policy and selective consumer spending. The company provided specific margin and sourcing figures while keeping its revenue growth target in line with market expectations, and flagged higher investment and capital intensity for the year ahead.
What the company said:
- Annual adjusted EPS expected around $2.20 to $2.35, below the $2.32 consensus.
- Current-quarter gross margins are expected to be about 200 basis points lower due to U.S. import tariffs.
- About 46% of product sourcing from Southeast Asia, regions affected by tariffs.
- Holiday-quarter same-store sales rose 3%, below the estimated 3.08% increase.
- Capital expenditures forecast at roughly $650 million for the year, compared with $470 million reported in 2025.