Stock Markets March 5, 2026

Futures Flat as Wall Street Extends Losses, Oil Spike Raises Concerns Ahead of Jobs Report

Investors held back as Middle East tensions push crude sharply higher and traders await U.S. payrolls data

By Priya Menon
Futures Flat as Wall Street Extends Losses, Oil Spike Raises Concerns Ahead of Jobs Report

U.S. stock index futures were largely unchanged on Thursday evening after major U.S. equity benchmarks extended declines earlier in the session. A sudden jump in oil prices amid rising tensions in the Middle East weighed on risk assets, while market participants turned their attention to an imminent U.S. nonfarm payrolls report that could influence the Federal Reserve's path on interest rates.

Key Points

  • U.S. futures were largely flat late Thursday with S&P 500 Futures at 6,843.50, Nasdaq 100 Futures at 25,072.75 and Dow Jones Futures at 48,064.0 by 20:10 ET (00:10 GMT).
  • Major U.S. indexes closed lower: Dow down 1.6%, S&P 500 down 0.6%, Nasdaq Composite down 0.3% as oil surged more than 8% amid Middle East tensions.
  • Investors are awaiting February’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report expected to show about 58,000 jobs added and an unemployment rate near 4.3%; the data could influence expectations for Fed rate cuts.

U.S. stock index futures showed little movement late Thursday after equities fell earlier in the day, with investors remaining guarded as geopolitical friction in the Middle East coincided with a steep rise in oil prices. By 20:10 ET (00:10 GMT), S&P 500 Futures were up 0.1% at 6,843.50 points, Nasdaq 100 Futures had ticked 0.1% higher to 25,072.75 points, and Dow Jones Futures traded 0.2% higher at 48,064.0 points.


Major U.S. benchmarks closed lower during the regular session, extending a broader pullback across markets this week as elevated energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty pressured risk sentiment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.6%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite ended the day down 0.3%.

Crude oil experienced a sharp intraday rise, climbing more than 8% as escalation in the Middle East heightened concerns about the security of shipping routes through the Persian Gulf. That move in energy prices fed into inflation worries and weighed on stocks sensitive to interest-rate expectations.

Higher energy costs typically squeeze corporate margins and can reduce consumer spending power, while also complicating efforts by the Federal Reserve to bring inflation under control. The recent rally in oil added another channel of pressure on rate-sensitive growth stocks, which were notably affected during the session.

Heightened geopolitical risk prompted some investors to shift toward perceived safe-haven assets, contributing to increased volatility in global financial markets over the week.


Attention now turns to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for February, a closely watched monthly snapshot of labor-market conditions that could influence expectations for monetary policy. Economists surveyed ahead of the report expect the economy to have added about 58,000 jobs in February, following a stronger-than-expected prior reading, and project the unemployment rate to hold near 4.3%.

The payrolls figure is expected to be central to market expectations around the timing and scope of interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. A resilient labor market could reinforce the case for policymakers to keep rates elevated for longer, while weaker-than-expected payrolls could bolster the outlook for easing later in the year. Traders generally anticipate the Fed will begin easing policy later this year, though recent economic resilience combined with geopolitical uncertainty has moderated expectations for aggressive cuts.


In this environment, market participants are balancing near-term risk from the oil-driven inflation impulse and geopolitical developments against incoming economic data that will shape the trajectory of monetary policy. Investors and corporate managers alike will be watching both the payrolls report and movement in energy markets for signals on margins, consumer demand, and rate outlooks.

Risks

  • Escalating tensions in the Middle East and related shipping-route concerns could keep oil prices elevated, weighing on energy-sensitive sectors and corporate margins (impacting energy, consumer-facing companies, and rate-sensitive growth stocks).
  • A sustained spike in oil and resulting inflation pressures could complicate the Federal Reserve’s efforts to lower inflation, potentially keeping interest rates higher for longer (impacting financials and interest-rate sensitive sectors).
  • A stronger-than-expected payrolls print could reduce market expectations for near-term rate cuts, increasing volatility across equities and fixed income; conversely, weaker payrolls could shift expectations for policy easing.

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