Summary: U.S. futures traded with limited movement on Wednesday night after minutes from the Fed's January meeting signaled disagreement among policymakers on next steps for monetary policy. With interest-rate direction still uncertain, market participants looked to Walmart's upcoming fourth-quarter report for indications of U.S. consumer strength. Heightened geopolitical tension in the Middle East also weighed on sentiment despite ongoing diplomatic exchanges between Tehran and Washington.
Futures activity reflected the cautious tone: S&P 500 Futures stood at 6,892.0 points by 20:00 ET (01:00 GMT), Nasdaq 100 Futures were near 24,942.75 points, and Dow Jones Futures were at 49,685.0 points. Those levels represented only modest moves late in the session after major indexes rallied earlier in the day, driven predominantly by a rebound in technology shares and economic data suggesting some resilience in the U.S. economy.
Fed minutes highlight split on inflation and policy
The minutes from the Federal Reserve's January meeting showed unanimous support among policymakers for keeping the target federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. However, officials were far from unified on what should follow. Several members warned that inflation could remain above the Fed's 2% annual objective for longer than expected, and those policymakers signaled that a further increase in interest rates might be appropriate if inflation does not abate.
Artificial intelligence emerged in the minutes as another source of uncertainty. Fed officials were divided on whether rapid advances in AI would act as a disinflationary force or add to inflationary pressures. That split added to market unease, since the Fed's next moves could hinge on how these structural developments affect price dynamics.
Walmart earnings and economic data in focus
Attention has turned to Walmart Inc's forthcoming fourth-quarter earnings report, due Thursday. Investors are focused on the retailer's guidance for 2026 as a fresh gauge of U.S. consumer demand and spending behavior. According to Investing.com data cited in market commentary, Walmart is expected to post earnings per share of $0.7269 on revenue of $190.4 billion for the quarter.
Walmart, the world's largest retailer by valuation and frequently viewed as a barometer of consumer health, will provide an outlook that market participants view as particularly informative given persistent signs of strain in U.S. retail spending amid sticky inflation. Beyond Walmart's report, U.S. trade figures for December and weekly jobless claims are scheduled for release on Thursday and could add further context to the economic picture.
Market action and sector dynamics
During the main trading session, Wall Street's benchmark indexes climbed, supported chiefly by gains in technology stocks. The S&P 500 rose 0.6% to close at 6,881.32 points, the NASDAQ Composite gained 0.8% to 22,753.64 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.3% to 49,662.66 points. Despite the advance, indexes finished short of intraday highs as investors wrestled with lingering uncertainty around Fed policy.
Technology sector strength was the primary driver of the rally, but the group also remains vulnerable to worries about the influence of artificial intelligence on costs and demand. Recent losses in software and logistics-related stocks were tied to concerns about AI's impact on those business models, while fears of stretched spending on AI initiatives have weighed on companies exposed to data centre demand.
Geopolitical developments
Market participants were also monitoring geopolitical developments after reports indicated an increased U.S. military presence in the Middle East amid higher tensions with Iran. Those reports came even as dialogue between Tehran and Washington continued, and the combination of an elevated regional military posture and ongoing diplomacy injected additional caution into trading decisions.
Outlook
With the Fed minutes underscoring divergent views within the central bank and AI-related uncertainty affecting both inflation expectations and technology valuations, investors entered the near term focused on corporate results and scheduled economic releases for clearer indications of growth and price pressures. Walmart's quarterly update, plus Thursday's trade and unemployment data, are likely to be watched closely for evidence of whether consumption and labour market metrics align with the more resilient picture some data have suggested.