A Truist analysis released Monday shows a continued firming of freight-market conditions through February and into March, driven by reduced truckload capacity and steady manufacturing activity.
Capacity and tender activity
Tender rejection rates climbed to an average of 13.9% in February, up from 13.1% in January, and reached 14.3% through March 15. By comparison, Truist notes tender rejection rates were 5.3% in February 2025 and 5.9% in March 2025, illustrating a notable tightening in truckload capacity versus the prior year.
Load-to-truck dynamics also showed improvement. The DAT load-to-truck ratio averaged 9.13 in February, rising from 8.23 in January, and compared with 4.73 in February 2025 and 4.82 in March 2025, according to the report.
Rates and fleet size
Spot rates moved higher as well, with the national average increasing to $2.41 per mile in February from $2.32 per mile in January. Through March 15 the average stood at $2.43 per mile. Truist contrasts those figures with $2.03 per mile in February 2025 and $1.99 per mile in March 2025.
Industry capacity showed modest contraction. Total truck fleets were down roughly 1.0% year-over-year in February, while fleets operating between one and six power units declined 1.3% year-over-year. Truist highlights that the one-to-six power unit segment accounts for more than 85% of total industry capacity.
Regulation and operations
Regulatory enforcement tightened in February, with more than 3,000 trucks removed from service for failing to meet English Language Proficiency requirements. Truist states that represents a 41% increase in removals compared to January.
Manufacturing backdrop
Manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory in February, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 52.4%, slightly below January's 52.6% but marking a second consecutive month of expansion. The New Orders index registered 55.8% in February, down from 57.1% in January.
Analyst ratings
Based on these developments, Truist continues to recommend buys on Old Dominion Freight Line (NASDAQ:ODFL), XPO (NYSE:XPO) and ArcBest Corporation (NASDAQ:ARCB), viewing those carriers as positioned to benefit from improving industrial activity and rising shipment weights. The firm also retains buy ratings on freight brokers C.H. Robinson (NASDAQ:CHRW) and RXO (NYSE:RXO), and maintains a hold rating on Landstar System (NASDAQ:LSTR).
The data and recommendations reflect Truist's assessment through mid-March and are focused on measurable freight-market indicators: tender rejections, load-to-truck ratios, spot rates, fleet size and regulatory enforcement, alongside manufacturing indices.