Stock Markets March 17, 2026

FOMC Decision, PPI Print and Weekly Crude Inventory Report Set to Drive Market Moves

A compact slate of inflation, energy and Fed data on Wednesday concentrates market attention on macro trends and policy signaling

By Avery Klein
FOMC Decision, PPI Print and Weekly Crude Inventory Report Set to Drive Market Moves

Markets face a dense calendar on Wednesday, March 18, 2026, with the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision, accompanying FOMC statement, economic projections and press conference taking center stage. Earlier in the day, the Producer Price Index and its core variant are due, and the Energy Information Administration will publish weekly crude oil inventory figures. A range of secondary data points - from factory orders to mortgage application indices and international capital flow measures - will add detail to the economic picture.

Key Points

  • A compact set of high-impact releases - PPI, EIA crude inventories and the FOMC policy decision - are scheduled for Wednesday, March 18, 2026, concentrating inflation, energy and monetary policy signals into a single trading day.
  • The FOMC will issue its interest-rate decision, policy statement and economic projections at 1:00 PM ET, followed by a 1:30 PM ET press conference; the Fed's projections include Federal Funds Rate paths for the current year, the first and second years, and the longer term.
  • Secondary releases across housing, manufacturing and international capital flows (including MBA mortgage indices, factory orders, EIA weekly statistics and TIC data) will provide additional context for interpreting inflation and policy signals, affecting sectors such as energy, financials and manufacturing.

Financial markets enter Wednesday, March 18, 2026, with a compact but consequential schedule of releases that could influence short-term trading and investor positioning. The calendar is anchored by the Federal Open Market Committee's rate decision, the FOMC statement and the committee's economic projections, followed by the Fed chair's press conference. Ahead of those policy communications, two widely watched data points - the Producer Price Index and the Energy Information Administration's weekly crude oil inventory report - are set to hit the tape and provide information on inflationary pressures at the producer level and supply dynamics in the oil market.


Why Wednesday matters

The sequence of events concentrates policy, inflation and energy data into a single trading day. The PPI release will give investors a look at price changes at the wholesale level, a gauge often used to anticipate consumer inflation trends. The EIA crude oil inventory figures will quantify weekly changes in commercial crude stockpiles, a variable that has direct implications for petroleum product pricing and, by extension, broader inflation measures. Later in the day, the FOMC’s decision on the federal funds rate, the committee’s policy statement and its economic projections will be released simultaneously, with a press conference to follow - a cadence that typically generates elevated market attention and volatility.


Major economic events and timing

  • 7:30 AM ET: PPI - Change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers; a leading gauge of consumer price inflation. Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.5%.
  • 9:30 AM ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories - Weekly change in commercial crude oil barrels held by U.S. firms. Forecast: 0.400M, Previous: 3.824M.
  • 1:00 PM ET: Interest Rate Decision - Federal Open Market Committee members vote on the target federal funds rate. Forecast: 3.75%, Previous: 3.75%.
  • 1:00 PM ET: FOMC Statement - The policy statement communicating the rate decision and the Fed's assessment of the economy.
  • 1:00 PM ET: FOMC Economic Projections - The committee's outlook for inflation, growth and individual members' interest-rate projections for coming years.
  • 1:30 PM ET: FOMC Press Conference - The post-decision press briefing with the Fed chair.

Additional data to watch earlier and later in the day

Alongside the headline items, several other releases will populate the calendar and help round out the economic snapshot for the session. These include producer-price measures stripped of food and energy, factory orders, and a series of Energy Information Administration weekly inventory and refinery data points. The Federal Reserve's projections also include more granular Federal Funds Rate paths - current year, first year, second year and longer-run - which will be published with the FOMC materials at 1:00 PM ET.

  • 7:30 AM ET: Core PPI - Producer prices excluding food and energy. Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.8%.
  • 9:00 AM ET: Factory Orders - Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers. Forecast: 0.1%, Previous: -0.7%.
  • 9:30 AM ET: EIA Weekly Cushing Oil Inventories - Change in crude barrels held at the Cushing, Oklahoma storage hub. Previous: 0.117M.
  • 1:00 PM ET: FFR Projection - Current - Federal Funds projection for the current year. Previous: 3.6%.
  • 1:00 PM ET: FFR Projection - 1st Yr - Projection for the first year. Previous: 3.4%.
  • 1:00 PM ET: FFR Projection - 2nd Yr - Projection for the second year. Previous: 3.1%.
  • 1:00 PM ET: FFR Projection - Longer - Longer-term Federal Funds projection. Previous: 3.0%.
  • 3:00 PM ET: TIC Net Long-Term Transactions - Difference in value between foreign long-term securities bought by U.S. residents and U.S. long-term securities bought by foreigners. Forecast: 71.6B, Previous: 28.0B.

Extended calendar highlights

Market participants will also receive a series of housing and mortgage-related indices from the Mortgage Bankers Association early in the session, additional PPI readings on a year-over-year basis, and a detailed suite of EIA weekly statistics covering gasoline, distillates, refinery runs and imports. Later in the afternoon, net capital flow measures and foreign buying of U.S. Treasuries will be published as part of the Treasury International Capital (TIC) data.

  • 6:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications - Weekly change in mortgage applications tracked by the MBA. Previous: 3.2%.
  • 6:00 AM ET: MBA Purchase Index - The MBA's index of mortgage applications for purchases of single-family homes. Previous: 171.3.
  • 6:00 AM ET: Mortgage Market Index - Weekly index covering all mortgage applications. Previous: 389.6.
  • 6:00 AM ET: Mortgage Refinance Index - Weekly index for mortgage refinance applications. Previous: 1,646.3.
  • 6:00 AM ET: MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate - The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate for 80% LTV loans. Previous: 6.19%.
  • 7:30 AM ET: PPI (Year-over-Year) - Annual change in the Producer Price Index. Forecast: 2.9%, Previous: 2.9%.
  • 7:30 AM ET: Core PPI (Year-over-Year) - Annual change in the Core Producer Price Index. Forecast: 3.7%, Previous: 3.6%.
  • 7:30 AM ET: PPI ex. Food/Energy/Trade - PPI excluding food, energy and trade services. Previous: 0.3% and 3.4%.
  • 9:00 AM ET: Durables Excluding Transport - New orders for durable goods excluding transportation equipment. Previous: 0.4%.
  • 9:00 AM ET: Durables Excluding Defense - New orders for durable goods excluding defense sector orders. Previous: 0.5%.
  • 9:00 AM ET: Factory orders ex transportation - New purchase orders excluding transportation. Previous: 0.4%.
  • 9:30 AM ET: Gasoline Inventories - Weekly change in commercial gasoline barrels held in inventory. Previous: -3.654M.
  • 9:30 AM ET: EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks - Weekly change in distillates stocks. Previous: -1.349M.
  • 9:30 AM ET: EIA Weekly Crude Imports - Weekly change in crude oil imports. Previous: 0.661M.
  • 9:30 AM ET: EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates - Percentage change in refinery capacity utilization. Previous: 1.6%.
  • 9:30 AM ET: EIA Refinery Crude Runs - Crude oil processed by refineries. Previous: 0.328M.
  • 9:30 AM ET: EIA Weekly Gasoline Production - Weekly gasoline production. Previous: 0.554M.
  • 9:30 AM ET: EIA Weekly Distillate Fuel Production - Weekly distillate fuel production. Previous: 0.132M.
  • 9:30 AM ET: EIA Weekly Heatoil Stock - Heating oil stock levels. Previous: 0.228M.
  • 3:00 PM ET: TIC Net Long-Term Transactions including Swaps - Net long-term transactions including swaps. Previous: 28.00B.
  • 3:00 PM ET: Overall Net Capital Flow - Sum of U.S. securities and foreign stocks and bonds transactions. Previous: 44.90B.
  • 3:00 PM ET: Foreign Buying, T-bonds - Net purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds and notes by a major foreign sector. Previous: -41.60B.

What market participants will be watching closely

Expect attention to cluster around the early PPI reads for signals on inflation momentum, the weekly EIA crude inventory report for supply-side information in the energy complex, and the Fed's decision and remarks for forward guidance. The FOMC's simultaneous release of the policy statement and economic projections, followed by the 1:30 PM ET press conference, will provide the formal framework through which markets interpret the data of the day.

Other scheduled releases - from mortgage activity and factory orders to the suite of EIA weekly statistics and the TIC capital flow data - will add layers of detail to the day's macro narrative but are secondary to the headline Fed and PPI/EIA items in terms of potential immediate market impact.


How to follow the updates

Investors and market participants relying on the calendar can use the times listed above to sequence their monitoring of the day's releases. The concentration of high-impact items at 1:00 PM ET and 1:30 PM ET means that positioning ahead of the Fed's communications may be particularly relevant for portfolios sensitive to interest-rate expectations and risk-asset valuation.

The day’s schedule provides a broad cross-section of information - inflation at the producer level, weekly energy balances, mortgage and housing demand indicators, factory order flows and international capital movements - that together will inform assessments of near-term economic momentum and policy direction.

Risks

  • Potential market volatility around the timing of the FOMC decision and the subsequent press conference could affect interest-rate-sensitive sectors such as financials and real estate.
  • Unexpected PPI or EIA crude inventory outcomes relative to the forecasts could alter near-term inflation expectations or crude price dynamics, impacting energy and consumer-price-sensitive sectors.
  • Shifts in the TIC net long-term transactions or foreign buying of Treasuries could influence U.S. capital flow dynamics and government-bond market conditions, with spillovers to fixed-income investors and currency markets.

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