FanDuel-owner Flutter reported a stronger core profit in 2025 but warned investors that profit growth for 2026 will be modest and well under street expectations, driven mainly by challenges in its largest market, the United States.
The company said core profit rose 21% in 2025. Yet management now anticipates only 4% growth this year, bringing core profit to $2.97 billion. That guidance is substantially lower than the $3.5 billion analysts polled by LSEG SmartEstimate had expected. Following the outlook, Flutter's shares fell more than 9% in after-hours trading.
Flutter pointed to reduced customer engagement in the U.S. late in the fourth quarter and continuing into 2026 as the principal reason for the softer projection. Management said the firm took more money from American football bettors than rival platforms across a streak of favourable sports outcomes, and that the lack of marquee names in the closing stages of the National Football League season left customers less inclined to place wagers during key playoff matches.
On the company s promotions, chief executive Peter Jackson acknowledged shortcomings. "We just didn t execute our generosity strategy as well as we should have done in the face of those results," he said, referring to the bonuses and promotional offers used to retain and stimulate betting activity.
Jackson also outlined steps the business plans to take. FanDuel - which the company says holds a 41% share of the U.S. market - intends to refine how it rewards customers and will introduce a loyalty programme in the second quarter to better position itself for the 2026/27 NFL season.
In addition to changes to customer incentives, Flutter said it will increase investment in its new prediction markets platform, launched in late December with derivatives exchange CME Group. The company expects that higher investment in FanDuel Predicts will lower 2026 core profit by up to the upper end of its previous $200 million to $300 million estimate.
FanDuel Predicts now offers non-sports markets in all 50 states and sports markets in 18 states, including California, Texas and Florida - states where, as the company noted, sports betting remains illegal. The firm emphasized that prediction markets let users wager on outcomes across sports, entertainment, politics and economic events, and said growing the product is a strategic priority even as it puts near-term pressure on profit.
The guidance highlights the sensitivity of Flutter's near-term earnings to U.S. customer behaviour, the design and execution of promotional programs, and the trade-off between investing to expand new product lines and protecting short-term profitability. Management's plan to tweak customer rewards and launch a loyalty programme signals a focus on re-engaging core bettors ahead of the next NFL season, while further funding of prediction markets reflects a bet on broader market opportunity despite an immediate drag on earnings.
Key context and takeaways
- 2025 core profit increased 21%.
- 2026 core profit guidance is $2.97 billion, up 4% - below the $3.5 billion consensus.
- Reduced U.S. engagement and promotional misexecution cited as primary causes; increased investment in FanDuel Predicts will further weigh on 2026 profit.