Flow Traders posted fourth-quarter results that surpassed analyst expectations on EBITDA while flagging elevated cost guidance for the year ahead.
The firm reported Q4 EBITDA of €49.2 million, a 9% beat relative to consensus, and net trading income of €123.8 million. Net trading income rose 58% quarter-on-quarter but declined 20% compared with the same quarter a year earlier. According to a UBS research note, the net trading income figure topped consensus by 7%.
The outperformance was concentrated in Europe. Flow Traders’ European operations achieved a revenue capture rate of 3.2 basis points versus the expected 2.7 basis points, producing a 15% net trading income beat in the region. This stronger-than-anticipated European performance offset weaker showings in other regions - the U.S. and Asia missed expectations by 9% and 14% respectively.
On the cost front, Q4 fixed costs amounted to €52.4 million, which was in line with consensus estimates. Earnings per share for the quarter were €0.81, 14% ahead of expectations, with the company citing lower depreciation and amortization as a contributing factor.
Balance-sheet metrics reflected increased trading capacity. Total trading capital at the end of Q4 stood at €1.044 billion, up 23% quarter-on-quarter, a rise the company said was supported by a €200 million private debt issuance.
Looking forward, Flow Traders provided guidance for fixed operating expenses in 2026 of between €220 million and €230 million. That range sits above the consensus estimate of €213 million; the midpoint of the company’s guidance implies a 10.2% increase in fixed operating expenses from 2025 levels.
Summary
Flow Traders beat Q4 EBITDA and net trading income expectations driven by stronger-than-expected European revenue capture, while signaling higher fixed operating expense guidance for 2026 that exceeds analyst forecasts. Regional results were mixed, with the U.S. and Asia underperforming versus expectations.
Key points
- Q4 EBITDA of €49.2 million beat consensus by 9%.
- Net trading income was €123.8 million, up 58% quarter-on-quarter and down 20% year-on-year, beating consensus by 7%.
- European revenue capture of 3.2 basis points outpaced the expected 2.7 basis points, producing a 15% regional net trading income beat; U.S. and Asia missed by 9% and 14% respectively.
Risks and uncertainties
- Higher-than-expected 2026 fixed operating expense guidance - the €220-230 million range exceeds the consensus €213 million and implies 10.2% growth from 2025 levels, increasing cost pressure on the business.
- Regional performance divergence - weaker outcomes in the U.S. and Asia, which missed expectations by 9% and 14% respectively, could weigh on overall revenue if those trends persist.