Stock Markets March 6, 2026

Fitch: U.S. Private Credit Defaults Reach Record 9.2% in 2025

Defaults concentrate among smaller middle-market issuers as floating-rate loans tied to the fed funds rate amplify stress

By Derek Hwang
Fitch: U.S. Private Credit Defaults Reach Record 9.2% in 2025

Fitch Ratings reports that defaults among U.S. private credit borrowers rose to a record 9.2% in 2025, up from 8.1% in 2024. In a monitor of 302 firms, the agency logged 38 default events affecting 28 borrowers. Smaller issuers and floating-rate capital structures tied to the federal funds rate were key features of the default set.

Key Points

  • Fitch found a record 9.2% default rate among U.S. private credit borrowers in 2025, up from 8.1% in 2024.
  • The monitor covered 302 companies and recorded 38 defaults involving 28 distinct borrowers, with most defaults among smaller issuers earning $25 million or less.
  • Most private credit facilities in the monitored portfolio are floating-rate and tied to the federal funds rate, increasing cash flow sensitivity to elevated rates; software is a major borrower group but saw no defaults in the period.

Fitch Ratings said the default rate for U.S. corporate borrowers of private credit climbed to 9.2% in 2025, a new high that surpasses the prior record of 8.1% recorded in 2024. The rating agency's private credit monitor covered 302 companies with outstanding private credit debt and identified 38 defaults across 28 separate borrowers during the year.

The cohort of businesses tracked by Fitch is primarily made up of middle-market firms, typically those with $100 million or less in earnings and roughly $500 million or less in outstanding debt. Within the defaults Fitch observed, a majority involved smaller issuers with $25 million or less in earnings. The agency noted that the defaults were dispersed across sectors rather than concentrated in a single industry.

Fitch's tally of defaults included both formal bankruptcy filings and distressed debt exchanges, the latter describing situations in which borrowers negotiated restructurings with their lending groups. The report emphasized that many of the private credit facilities in the monitored portfolio carried floating interest rates linked to the federal funds rate.

Fitch pointed to the persistence of elevated policy rates over the past three years as a material factor in the increase in defaults. "Capital structures in the PMR portfolio tend to be predominantly floating rate with minimal interest rate hedges in place," the report's authors wrote, referring to privately monitored ratings. "This leaves companies' cash flow highly vulnerable to elevated rates."

The agency also observed that its findings emerged against a backdrop of a broad sell-off in software sector equities - a group that represents a significant borrowing segment for private credit lenders. Despite the market turbulence affecting software stocks, Fitch recorded no defaults by issuers classified in the software sector last year. The agency said it assigns software issuers to their principal target market sectors where applicable.

Overall, Fitch's monitor highlights the intersection of borrower size, capital structure, and an extended period of high interest rates as central elements in the rising default rate among private credit borrowers. The report's dataset and categorizations reflect the agency's privately monitored ratings and the specific universe of 302 firms it tracks.

Risks

  • Elevated interest rates - Floating-rate loan structures tied to the federal funds rate leave borrowers' cash flows exposed while rates have remained high, increasing default risk for middle-market companies.
  • Concentration in smaller issuers - A majority of defaults occurred among firms with $25 million or less in earnings, suggesting higher vulnerability in lower-earnings middle-market segments.
  • Market volatility - Although software lenders did not record defaults, a market-wide sell-off in the software sector represents an ongoing source of stress for a major borrower group in private credit.

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