Fitch Ratings upgraded British American Tobacco plc's Long-Term Issuer Default Rating to 'A-' from 'BBB+' on Friday and removed the company from Under Criteria Observation, assigning a Stable Rating Outlook. The decision reflects what Fitch describes as BAT's strong business profile as one of the largest global tobacco companies with broad regional and brand diversification, healthy growth potential from next-generation products and the ability to generate consistent profitability and cash flows alongside a conservative financial policy.
In its analysis, Fitch projects BAT will produce annual post-dividend free cash flow of GBP1.8 billion to GBP2.4 billion for 2026-2028. This cash-flow profile is expected to be underpinned by low- to mid-single-digit organic revenue growth, according to the agency.
Fitch also expects an improvement in profitability metrics, with an EBITDA margin rising to 48% by 2028 from 47% in 2025. The agency attributes the margin improvement to expansion in new product categories that are expected to achieve double-digit growth, together with further efficiency savings across 2026-2030.
Next-generation products contributed an operating amount of GBP442 million in 2025 on a constant currency basis, representing an increase of nearly 80% from 2024. Fitch notes that BAT's next-generation categories delivered organic revenue growth of 7% in 2025, led by a 48% increase in modern oral products that more than offset an 8.6% decline in vapour.
BAT holds a 52% share in the US vapour market, Fitch reports, but vapour volume declined 13% in 2025. The agency attributes that decline to a lack of enforcement against illegal products in Canada and the US. On combustible tobacco, BAT's US organic growth was positive in 2025 for the first time in three years, with the rate of volume decline moderating to 7% to 8% from the 10% to 15% declines seen in prior years.
Financial policy and leverage targets were central to Fitch's upgrade rationale. The ratings agency said BAT's net leverage target of 2.0x to 2.5x from 2026 supports the A- rating. Fitch-adjusted EBITDA net leverage was 2.6x in 2025 and is projected by the agency to fall to 2.5x at end-2026 and 2.3x at end-2027.
BAT has announced GBP1.3 billion of share buybacks for 2026. In Fitch's rating case, the agency assumes potential additional share buybacks of GBP3.2 billion over 2027-2028.
Relative peer positioning is also reflected in the rating. Fitch places BAT one notch below Philip Morris International, which holds an 'A' rating with a Stable outlook, on the basis that BAT has a less diversified net revenue mix. In 2025, BAT's smokeless revenue portfolio represented 18% of net sales compared with Philip Morris's 42%.
Conversely, BAT's rating sits one notch above Altria Group, which holds a 'BBB+' rating, primarily because Altria's revenue is concentrated solely in the US market.
Context and implications
The upgrade from Fitch formalizes credit recognition of BAT's ability to translate a growing mix of next-generation product sales into stronger operating cash flow while maintaining conservative leverage targets. Fitch's projections on margin expansion, cash generation and declining adjusted net leverage underpin the agency's confidence in BAT's credit profile through the 2026-2028 period.