Market participants head into Monday, Feb. 23, 2026, with a concentrated set of events that could move sentiment and pricing across fixed income and equity markets. The agenda is led by remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and the release of the monthly factory orders report. Supplemental readings from regional Fed surveys and two Treasury bill auctions complete the schedule.
Overview of the day
No 3-star events are scheduled for this day. Nonetheless, the combination of a central bank official's remarks, manufacturing order flow and short-term debt auctions creates a cross-section of data that investors typically watch for clues about demand trends and interest rate dynamics.
Notable items on the calendar
- 8:00 AM ET - Fed Waller Speaks: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller will deliver public remarks that market participants may parse for signals about the monetary policy outlook and the Fed's assessment of economic conditions.
- 8:30 AM ET - Chicago Fed National Activity: The Chicago Fed's index tracks economic activity across the 7th Federal Reserve district - Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan and Wisconsin - and is used as a barometer for regional growth and inflation pressures. Previous reading: -0.04.
- 10:00 AM ET - Factory Orders: The monthly report measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers, and includes revisions to durable goods data as well as new figures for non-durable goods. Previous: 2.7%.
- 10:00 AM ET - Factory Orders ex Transportation: This variant excludes transportation-related orders to provide a clearer view of underlying manufacturing demand. Previous: 0.2%.
- 10:00 AM ET - Durables Excluding Transport: New orders for durable goods omit transportation equipment to isolate other categories of durable manufacturing demand. Previous: 0.9%.
- 10:00 AM ET - Durables Excluding Defense: This measure strips out defense-related purchases from durable goods orders. Forecast: -2.5%. Previous: 6.5%.
- 10:00 AM ET - Dallas Fed PCE: The Dallas Fed's trimmed-mean Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation measure removes extreme price moves to highlight core inflation trends. Previous: 1.50%.
- 10:30 AM ET - Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index: The index gauges Texas factory activity by surveying firms about output, employment, orders and prices; it produces directional indices for regional manufacturing conditions. Previous: -1.2.
- 11:30 AM ET - 3-Month Bill Auction: The weekly auction of 3-month Treasury bills offers insight into investor demand for very short-term government paper and expectations for short-term interest rates. Previous high-rate reference: 3.600%.
- 11:30 AM ET - 6-Month Bill Auction: The auction for six-month Treasury bills reflects borrowing costs and investor appetite for short-duration government debt. Previous: 3.500%.
Why these releases matter
Comments from a Fed governor can influence market perceptions of the policy path and economic assessment. Factory orders and their variants are direct indicators of new business in the manufacturing sector and are commonly used to infer demand trends for producers. Regional indices such as the Chicago Fed National Activity and the Dallas Fed manufacturing measures provide localized snapshots of activity that complement national data. Finally, Treasury bill auctions reveal investor demand for short-term government liabilities and feed into short-rate expectations.
Market implications
Taken together, the events on Monday give traders fresh inputs on three fronts: monetary policy communication, the health of manufacturing demand and the tone of investor demand for short-term Treasuries. Each of these can feed into pricing in interest-rate sensitive sectors and influence fixed income yield curves and equity sector rotation tied to industrial output.
What to watch during the day
- Language and tone in Governor Waller's remarks for any shifts or emphasis on policy risks or the economic outlook.
- The factory orders headline and ex-transportation figures for signs about underlying manufacturing demand.
- Results of the 3-month and 6-month bill auctions for indications of investor appetite for short-term government paper and implicit rate expectations.
Limitations
While the calendar delivers several targeted datapoints, no single release guarantees a durable market direction. Observers will need to integrate these readings with other incoming data and market behavior to form a fuller view.
Conclusion
Monday's mix of central bank commentary, manufacturing orders, regional activity gauges and Treasury bill auctions offers a compact but informative set of signals for market participants. Traders and analysts are likely to use the day to update assessments of industrial demand and short-term rate expectations as the results arrive.