Overview
Evercore ISI moved Ryanair Holdings up to an Outperform rating from In Line on Thursday and increased its price target to $80 from $75. The brokerage cited Ryanair's reported net cash position of €1 billion and noted the stock's roughly 15% decline from January peaks as factors supporting the upgrade.
Fuel dynamics prompt broad cuts
The upgrade to Ryanair was issued alongside a set of downward revisions across Evercore ISI's airline coverage, driven by a pronounced widening of jet fuel refining margins. The firm reported that jet fuel crack spreads had reached 44% of the total Gulf Coast barrel price, a level more than twice the long-term historical range of about 20-25%.
Analyst Duane Pfennigwerth framed the margin dislocation as an unusually large event, describing it as roughly a 2.8-sigma occurrence comparable to the scale of disruptions seen in 2008 and during the early stages of the Ukraine war period. He noted the rapid run-up in spot jet fuel, which was near 53% above the first-quarter-to-date average as of March 11.
Evercore ISI estimates a delay of approximately two weeks between spot fuel moves and airlines' fuel realization, leading the brokerage to place first-quarter 2026 Gulf Coast jet fuel at $2.40 per gallon in its models.
"Jet fuel specific refining margins (44% of total barrel vs. brent vs. 20-25% historically) are a rare occurrence historically," Pfennigwerth said.
Ryanair stands out on earnings and balance sheet
Ryanair was the only carrier in Evercore ISI's coverage to receive upward revisions to its EPS outlook. The brokerage increased Ryanair's 2026 earnings per American Depositary Share estimate to $4.77 from $4.65, and lifted the 2027 EPS forecast to $5.75 from $5.65. By contrast, peers covered by the firm saw cuts to their forecasts for 2026.
Evercore ISI highlighted Ryanair's net debt-to-EBITDAR ratio of -0.4x for 2026, identifying it as the strongest balance-sheet position within the coverage group. For comparison, the brokerage noted JetBlue's ratio at 13.7x and American Airlines at 7.2x under its metrics.
Industry demand signal remains constructive
Despite the fuel-related margin shock, demand indicators remained solid. Evercore ISI's Airlines Survey rose 6.2 points to 70.0 to start March, with the international component moving up from 62.5 to 75. Passenger throughput for the week ending March 10 was up 2% year-over-year on a seven-day average basis and stood 5% above 2019 levels. The estimated industry load factor for that week was 1 percentage point higher year-over-year.
Pfennigwerth contrasted current company commentary with that from last year, observing that tone at the ISTAT event had shifted to a more constructive stance compared with the softening linked to tariff and uncertainty impacts a year earlier.
Broker estimates versus consensus
Evercore ISI's 2026 EPS forecasts generally sat below consensus for most carriers it covers. Examples cited by the brokerage include a $8.60 2026 EPS estimate for United Airlines relative to a consensus of $12.91, a $5.70 estimate for Delta Air Lines versus a $6.99 consensus, and a -$0.36 estimate for American Airlines against a $2.05 consensus. Ryanair was an exception, where Evercore ISI's full-year 2026 estimate of $5.52 aligned closely with the $5.55 consensus.
Conclusion
Evercore ISI's upgrade of Ryanair reflects the brokerage's view that the carrier's cash-rich balance sheet and recent share pullback leave it relatively well positioned amid an industrywide shock to jet fuel refining margins. At the same time, the wider set of estimate reductions for other airlines underscores how concentrated fuel cost pressures have affected near-term earnings forecasts across the sector.