The latest LSEG I/B/E/S consensus revisions point to an improving picture for corporate profits in Europe, with blue-chip indices climbing to recent highs amid a better-than-expected earnings season so far.
LSEG data show that, on average, European companies are now expected to report a 1.1% decline in fourth-quarter 2025 earnings. That represents a significant upward revision from the 3.1% fall analysts had anticipated just one week earlier. Even with the improvement, the projected contraction would be the weakest earnings performance recorded in the past seven quarters, according to the same LSEG dataset.
Market expectations for fourth-quarter earnings had worsened sharply following policy announcements in February of last year relating to tariffs, which prompted a marked reassessment of corporate profit growth. For the STOXX 600 index specifically, expectations swung from roughly 11% earnings growth projected prior to those announcements to a contraction estimated as steep as 4.2% in January.
Recent weeks have seen a modest rebound in forecasts. So far this reporting season about 60% of companies have reported results that beat analyst estimates, compared with a typical quarter in which roughly 54% of firms exceed expectations, based on LSEG information. That higher beat rate has provided some lift to market sentiment.
On the revenue side, however, the outlook has weakened. Revenues for STOXX 600 companies are now forecast to be 3.4% lower than the same period last year, a slight downgrade from the 3.2% decrease projected a week earlier.
Concrete corporate reports have helped underpin the more upbeat tone in equities. Luxury group Hermès and eyewear and eyewear-brand owner EssilorLuxottica posted results ahead of analyst expectations, while the worlds largest brewer Anheuser-Busch InBev and industrial conglomerate Siemens provided positive guidance for 2026. Those company updates were cited as contributors to improving investor sentiment across the region.
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Summary
LSEG revisions have narrowed the projected drop in fourth-quarter 2025 earnings to 1.1% from a 3.1% decline a week earlier, helping European blue-chip indexes push higher. Revenue expectations, in contrast, have deteriorated slightly. Stronger-than-expected results from certain luxury and consumer-facing companies, alongside upbeat guidance from major industrial and brewer names, have supported sentiment.
Key points
- Consensus now forecasts a 1.1% decline in Q4 2025 earnings for European companies, an improvement from a 3.1% decrease a week earlier.
- Revenues for STOXX 600 firms are expected to be 3.4% lower year-on-year, a slight downgrade versus the prior week's 3.2% decline forecast.
- Notable positive contributors to sentiment include better-than-expected results at Hermès and EssilorLuxottica and positive guidance for 2026 from Anheuser-Busch InBev and Siemens.
Risks and uncertainties
- Macroeconomic and policy-driven shocks remain a driver of forecast volatility - prior tariff-related announcements materially worsened earnings expectations for the STOXX 600.
- Revenue weakness across the STOXX 600 presents a risk to profit recovery, given forecasts for a year-on-year decline of 3.4%.
- If the pace of beats relative to analyst estimates slows, the recent improvement in sentiment could reverse; the current reporting season beat rate of about 60% is only modestly above the typical 54%.