The European Central Bank's meeting accounts conveyed rising unease among members about the prospect of inflation dipping further under target in the near term, even as the bank judged itself to be in a sound position from a monetary policy standpoint.
According to the accounts, the stream of incoming data broadly confirmed the narrative and baseline inflation trajectory that had been incorporated in the December staff projections. The document noted that recent shocks had been unfolding and becoming more visible, largely in line with expectations embedded in those projections.
Despite that confirmation, the accounts flagged a notable near-term downside risk: inflation was likely to fall further below target than had been anticipated previously. Some members explicitly viewed the balance of risks to inflation as tilted to the downside compared with the December staff projections.
At the same time, most participants continued to regard risks around the inflation outlook as two-sided, describing the distribution of outcomes around the baseline as relatively unchanged. The accounts recorded that some members believed the tilt toward downside risks had emerged or strengthened since the December meeting.
Importantly, the minutes stated that none of the risks identified so far had materialised to a degree that would meaningfully alter the inflation outlook. Relatedly, recent momentum in growth did not appear to present upside risks to the baseline inflation path.
The accounts observed that the series of positive growth surprises seen in recent months had been partly driven by stronger-than-expected investment. Still, that pickup in activity was not judged to undermine the baseline projection for inflation.
On the policy front, the minutes underlined that prevailing uncertainty could justify holding interest rates steady - at least temporarily - to allow time for how the various risks evolve over the coming months. The current policy rate level was viewed as providing sufficient flexibility to respond to shocks, the accounts said.
Officials signalled that interest rates could remain at current settings for an extended period provided incoming data did not point to a meaningful change in the outlook. The Governing Council emphasised that patience should not be equated with hesitation to act, nor should it be interpreted as an asymmetric stance. Instead, the emphasis was on preserving full optionality in either direction for future meetings.
The accounts also stressed the need for agility - the ability to react quickly, if necessary, to any new information that alters the inflation outlook. That stance reflects a preference to keep policy choices open while monitoring key indicators closely.
Currency developments were flagged as a potential driver of weaker inflation: a stronger euro could reduce inflation more than currently expected, the minutes noted. To assess whether underlying inflation is indeed receding as projected, the ECB said it will monitor wage growth dynamics and developments in services inflation closely.
Energy price movements remain an area of close scrutiny. The accounts highlighted the importance of tracking the persistence of the recent spike in energy inflation and warned that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could pose a risk of further increases in energy prices.
Taken together, the minutes portray a central bank balancing confirmation of its baseline projections against emerging downside risks in the near term, and prepared to keep policy on hold while retaining the flexibility to tighten or ease as warranted by incoming data.