U.S. equities in several technology and consumer platform stocks tumbled Monday after investors digested a scenario analysis from Citirini Research that envisions a severe economic disruption driven by rapidly advancing AI. DoorDash led the declines, sliding 7%, while Uber fell 3%, Salesforce dropped 4%, MongoDB retreated 6% and ServiceNow eased 4%. Payment processors Visa and Mastercard each declined by more than 2% as the report circulated.
The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) was also affected, shedding 3.6% amid broader concerns over how accelerated AI adoption could compress revenues and alter business models across software and consumer-facing platforms.
The Citirini Research piece is explicitly presented as a hypothetical scenario viewed from June 2028 rather than a forecast. It outlines a chain of events that begins in late 2025, when so-called agentic coding tools would allow developers to reproduce mid-market software-as-a-service products in a matter of weeks. That dynamic, the analysis suggests, would place intense downward pressure on enterprise software pricing and renewal rates.
Within the scenario, ServiceNow is used as an illustrative example. The report projects ServiceNow would report 14% net new annual contract value growth in the third quarter of 2026, down from 23%, and notes a hypothetical 15% reduction in the companys workforce. The narrative frames these changes as part of a hypothetical restructuring of SaaS economics driven by rapid automation of development tasks and product replication.
The analysis also extends beyond the enterprise software market to consumer platforms and friction-based business models. It posits that AI agents could continuously optimize purchases, travel bookings and insurance renewals on behalf of users, undermining habitual app loyalty. DoorDash is highlighted as an example of a consumer-facing platform that could be particularly exposed if AI agents routinely comparison-shop across multiple services for every transaction.
Citirini Research models broader macroeconomic consequences within the scenario. It projects a hypothetical unemployment rate of 10.2% by June 2028, with white-collar job losses concentrated among workers whose spending disproportionately supports parts of the economy. The report describes potential knock-on effects through private credit markets, especially private equity-backed software deals, and raises questions about the assumptions embedded in mortgage underwriting if borrower income expectations shift in a structural way.
Citirini Research emphasizes that the exercise is intended to explore a left-tail risk scenario as AI reshapes economic activity, not to predict a specific outcome. Nevertheless, the market reaction on Monday reflected investor sensitivity to the possibility that rapid AI advances could alter pricing power and renewal dynamics across software, reduce transaction loyalty on consumer platforms, and create stress points in credit markets.
For investors and analysts, the scenario highlights several tension points for business models: the endurance of subscription-based pricing when product replication becomes easier; the resilience of platform-driven consumer habits when agents can automate comparisons; and the vulnerability of leveraged software deals to revenue shocks. The report does not assert these outcomes will occur but serves as an exploration of what a fast-moving AI disruption might look like if the hypothesized sequence of events were to materialize.